“Aaj ka launda yeh kehta hum to bismil thak gaye

Apni aazaadi to bhaiya laundiya ke dil mein hai”

The most glaring disconnect in Manmohan’s speech was the plan to create jobs for Kashmiris. Atal Bihari Vajpayee would have never said that. Even after the 7 continuous speeches from Red Fort, does Manmohan and his chelas still believe that Kashmiris are giving up there lives every single day facing Indian Army bullets for jobs? My Prime Minister would have apologized to the people of Kashmir. Even Vajpayee probably would have. Independence day would have been much better without Manmohan’s miserable speech.

P.S: Peepli Live is one of the best movies in recent years. Go watch it! Happy 63rd

from telecom to i.t. to petroleum to aviation to railways to surface transport to industries to every ministry: this govt since 2004 has probably the richest and most corrupt ministers in india’s history.. just wish they’ll stop all this sanctimoniousness over small fry tharoor. sonia, manmohan and gang make me sick.” – Kufr (via facebook)

That said, Trivandrum voted for Shashi Tharoor as MP exactly a year ago, and it’s sad to see his humiliating exit from the ministry. Netizen’s or as Tharoor called “New India” rallied behind his candidature including a very healthy debate on this blog (Can Shashi Tharoor lose in Trivandrum?). Personally I would have preferred Modi losing out in the end (yeah I did my share of anti-Modi tweets), but now that it is all said and done, some sanity check on Tharoor would be a good idea.

I wonder if there will be protests on the ground for Tharoor , or will it be limited to his 700K odd followers on Twitter. If Tharoor doesn’t evoke emotions on the ground, it could be because his priorities are slightly wrong and he is playing to the online crowd, or as the online crowd would put it, the offline crowd is “common man” or “illiterate”. I hope the offline people in Kerala are half as outraged as the angry politician hating online junta. I’m keeping my ears closer to ground, may be Tharoor should have.

Last year same time, many of us asked what Panyan (Ex-MP) did for Trivandrum, and reached a conclusion that he did nothing. I sincerely hope Tharoor has a long list on this front, or at least a small list of things he got done in the past one year for our city. At least this is the list  of things Tharoor did and I heard of -

September 2009: Tharoor and SM Krishna were rapped for staying in 5-star hotels.

September 2009: “Cattle Class” remark, Tharoor explains to party.

December 2009: Tharoor publicly criticised the new visa guidelines adopted by the government. (this was a low point, if I were PM he would have been OUT that day)

January 2010: Nehru-Gandhi remark pisses off INC.

February 2010: Saudi third party mediation controversy.

April 2010: IPL Waterloo.

“U folks are the new India”

It is more saddening to see that Tharoor is not exiting on his own, but being sacked around accusations of corruption. If he had resigned in protest against “the red tape”, or “allocation of funds to Kerala”, or even “ludicrous nature of Indian foreign policy” it would have been a worth while tenure. I do not understand when people say “tharoor is the new kinda politician”. I do understand that he never fit in, but that is not enough to claim that he is any different or any better. At this point in time Tharoor was sacked for,

1. Misusing his office and authority to influence a lucrative bidding process.

Also to note that Kochi IPL is a least priority agenda for people of Kerala. Like Thomas Issac said ‘I wish he had used his influence to get a fair allocation of rice from the center”. And I didn’t hear of Tharoor excessive interest in bringing IPL to Kerala till the controversy began.

2. Trying to make money through Sunanda Pushkar.

I would like to believe that Sunanda Pushkar’s consulting services for Kochi IPL is worth 70 crores. Then, I too eat rice, and am a cynic.

And how is Tharoor different from any politician? because he retweets?

Politicians from national parties holding governmental positions have always resigned in the face of graft allegations including, in recent memory – Advani, Madhav Rao, Madan Lal Khurana, and Arjun Singh (after Hawala scam). Tharoor for one, has been creating more distractions than needed for this government, and this time, the allegations call him a crook. Tharoor may not be a crook, but a person with no ground support, who played the online and mainstream media to create a niche for himself finally finding himself at the receiving end of media’s attention. And btw Rajdeep Sardesai and Times group – well played!

At the same time, if there is anyone out there who thinks these allegations are not serious or pure media creation, you are no different from the people who support Deve Gowda and Mayawati despite their tarred hands. And to argue that every politician is corrupt, or bring up names like Modi and Raja to counter an allegation is seriously middle class. Seriously guys, I like Tharoor, but our man messed up beyond normal. He had to go.

P.S: Other notable posts – Ajay and Anish are pissed.

P.P.S: In the mean time, prices have risen. Some people are protesting that in Delhi.

When one looks at Shashi Tharoor’s candidature, these are the questions that pop-up

Is he the better candidate?

Why should he win?

What do I need from my MP?

Can he win?

I have a feeling that this one is going to be long.

I was in Picador the other day reading reviews of Naomi Klein’s new book. Curiously, a very balanced review in Washington Post was written by the man who could be our new MP. Just another reason to so adore this man who was one of my favourite authors of fiction and non-fiction when I was in school. Then again I have graduated from school and politics is another game altogether.

The Trivandrum Lok Sabha constituency has returned bigger guns to Lok Sabha (including M N Govindan Nair, PK Vasudevan Nair and K Karunakaran), but Shashi Tharoor has an international repute and a spectacular resume that comes a close second to our one time MP and Defense Minister who delivered the longest speech in the United Nations. Then again, resumes don’t explain the political aftermath (or the math) because Trivandrum defeated ONV Kurup when he contested against the ‘universally accepted useless’ A Charles.

Is Tharoor the better candidate?

I am not sure. But he is a different kind of candidate who comes very rarely. His personal achievements are things which an average Malayali politician cannot even start to imagine. But is he a better candidate compared to Ramachandran Nair who has spent the last thirty years involved in local issues and participated in people’s movements while personally achieving nothing. Tharoor’s intellect is more than enough to impress me as a netizen and a blogger, but Tharoor’s understanding of local issues I suspect may be influenced a little too far by the internet and the vocal upper middle-class opinion thats pasted around it.

This could be Tharoor’s advantage too. Ramachandran Nair, the CPI candidate, while outlining his vision, seemed to be tied down by the reality that development will only happen in incremental steps (he talked about setting up a night time resting place for homeless and vagabonds as his urgent priority). May be it is his years of bad experiences that prevents Ramachandran Nair from dreaming big, but Tharoor talked about Trivandrum’s growth into a metropolis of global reckoning. His detailed vision is here (I have seen this before, in several other places, Tharoor has compiled it well)

At a personal level, I felt that Tharoor is struggling to connect. But this could be an initial hiccup, and for all he is worth – thats ok. But lovability and approachability of the candidate is important for the real voter (often mentioned incorrectly as ‘average voter’). If by April 16th, the feeling is that ‘hey! I have touched that thing! It speaks in a curious tongue!’ it could mean a few ten thousand votes lost.

Why Tharoor should win?

If Tharoor is serious about this whole thing, if this is not a short-cut for him to the South Delhi Club or the Indian Cabinet, which I am severely suspicious it is, and if he wants to make Trivandrum home and see it move forward – Then I guess he should be given that chance. But a similar choice was made by Trivandrumites when K Karunakaran was returned to Lok Sabha. The argument was the development brought to Mala (his pet constituency), but K Karunakaran proved to be an apathetic representative. (Though Keralalites thanked Trivandrumites for sending Kannoth Karu far away from the state).

Tharoor can dream big, he can give the city a much needed marketing break, doors that will remain closed to Ramachandran Nair or P K Krishnadas will be open to Tharoor. In simpler terms Tharoor can be a mascot, Tharoor can be an effective lobbyist, and Tharoor has the intellect to be bipartisan.

But the suspicion remains that if Tharoor makes it to the real game in Delhi, will he ever come back? May be its just the tiny insecurity of a small town blogger.

What do I need from my MP?

One rare occasion where I loved L K Advani was when he admonished a person in his electoral rally saying that he was running for Lok Sabha and not for local corporation, and it is not his duty to make sure that GandhiNagar had better roads and better sewage. There were other representatives who were responsible for that. A classic case which is often forgotten. An MP is not about Bijli, Sadak and Pani.

India has a Westminster form of Government where the expectation from an MP is that he legislates effectively and raises concerns at a national level about very important (only very important) issues from his constituency.

In that way Shashi Tharoor will be an effective contributor given his grasp of issues and exceptional diplomatic style. But I would also like to know his stands on Disinvestment, private sector reservation (Congress poll plank), Narendra Modi, India’s relationship with Iran, his stand on Palestine, his stand on Special Economic Zones, and most importantly I want to know if he will go on an indefinite hunger strike if the ASEAN trade pact, which will break the backbone of Kerala, goes through.

And then, the toughest of questions.

Can Shashi Tharoor lose?

Candidates are: Ramachandran Nair (CPI), Shashi Tharoor (Congress), PK Krishnadas (BJP – State President), Neelalohitadasan Nadar (BSP), Vijayan Thomas (Congress Rebel) and MP Gangadharan (NCP – former minister)

Trivandrum constituency is spread across 7 assembly divisions and is as Ajay pointed out, Kerala’s only constituency with a clearly urban bias. Yet another factor that favours Tharoor is the floating vote between the Left and Anti-Left divide which O Rajagopal of BJP used to capitalize on. These along with a very high probability of Congress returning to power and strong anti-incumbency in the state should have delivered Trivandrum in a platter to Tharoor. But things are not so rosy as it seems and this is why -

1. The anti-incumbency was expected to give a landslide to the UDF. But there is no wave on the surface, and anti-incumbency does not seem to be strong enough. There might be actually no landslide, and the CPM led front may romp home with something like 10-12 seats. Then again, even in 2001, there was supposedly no visibly strong anti-left wave, but UDF came home with 100 seats. Plus Lok Sabha elections has historically been a pro-Congress affair in the state.

2. Vijayan Thomas & V S Shivakumar factor: Vijayan Thomas (the Congress rebel) has created ripples within the Congress party’s electoral machine with his candidature. His money machine may not actually divide many Congress votes but it can dampen and slowdown Tharoor’s campaign. The Church which has its own flock in the coastal regions has not taken kindly to Vijayan Thomas being denied the Congress ticket.

V S Shivakumar, ex-MP and DCC president, can hurt Tharoor’s chances with his non-involvement (another ticket loser). He can also ruin Tharoor’s chances in his homeground and critical assembly segment of Neyyattinkara. This along with the perception that Tharoor is the High Command’s Candidate who landed here on a balloon, could keep the average congress worker off the campaign trail. If the campaign posters across the city are anything to go by, Tharoor trails Ramachandran Nair, Neelan and Krishnadas by a large extent.

3. Mayawati’s Neelan: BSP’s Neelalohitadasan Nadar could end up grabbing a sizable chunk of the Nadar-Dalit vote, a critical segment for the Congress. There is a strong undercurrent in favour of Neelan and with a six way split, he could even be a close third or even finish second. The rhetoric of Mayawati for PM (BSP’s national campaign was launched in Trivandrum), and Neelan for a plump Cabinet berth may sink well with the dalits, nadars and Muslims. The Kovalam belt can hurt the CPI, and Neelan’s impact on Kazhakuttam and Parassala could ruin the Congress.

4. The other ‘N’ and the ‘I’ group: While Neelan makes a considerable impact on the Nadar vote, BJPs PK Krishnadas and NCP’s M P Gangadharan could split the anti-left Nair vote. BJP has fielded its state president in this prestige fight and chances of RSS selling votes to Congress seems unlikely because of that. But at the same time, CPM’s new sleeping partner Maudhany could provoke a severe backlash amongst Nairs in favour of Tharoor and Krishnadas. Trivandrum is a K Karunakaran stronghold and a segment of the Nair vote has been with his group for long. The indifference of the ‘I’ group voter towards the so-called ‘Ommen Congress’ may end up helping MP Gangadharan, the NCP candidate. There is also a feeling that Muraleedharan is being victimised for a little too long. For Murali, Tharoor’s defeat will be a proving a point.

To sum it up, Tharoor’s campaign has not gathered steam, and the Congress party machinery seems to be failing him. But even at this juncture, Tharoor remains a front-runner and a candidate who holds some promise. There are people who vote based on a candidate’s qualities, people who vote for a candidate’s utility, people who vote for special interests, and those who vote for ideology. Whatever be their way of voting, I hope the voters in Trivandrum are given a chance to make an informed decision by the campaign teams. This election result will be a pointer towards which way we are headed.

Update 3/29:

Vijayan Thomas INC (Rebel) withdraws from contesting, decides to fully support Tharoor. Ramachandran Nair still leads Tharoor almost two to one in terms of campaign reach.

Ramachandran Nair’s vision is here

New Pastoral letter read across Churches on Sunday calls for defeating atheists and people who promote atheism [Now that they were successful in making Hybi Eden candidate for Ernakulam]

Update 3/30:

The day’s ‘Samakalika Malayalam’ talks about a big split in the BJP vote in Trivandrum which could favour Tharoor, an understanding between K Karunakaran and the CPI to return Ramachandran Nair from Trivandrum and Karunakaran’s own Peethambara Kurup from Kollam, a heavy Janata Dal play to split left votes in Trivandrum to help Neelan which in turn could help Tharoor, and about a seemingly dangerous resentment among Congress workers towards Tharoor, which will help Nair. I wish I had attended the Permutations & Combinations lesson in School instead of cutting class and going for Mohanlal’s Ayal Kadhayezhuthukayanu

Update 5/16:
Tharoor wins by a landslide. BJP is pushed to the 4th place with Neelan creating a record of sorts for the BSP by coming in 3rd.

“If anyone raises a finger towards Hindus or if someone thinks that Hindus are weak and leaderless, if someone thinks that these leaders lick our boots for votes, if anyone raises a finger towards Hindus, then I swear on Gita that I will cut that hand.”  – Times

‘Gau hatya rukwana hai, Varun Gandhi ko jitana hai’ (Cow slaughter must stop, Varun Gandhi must win) and “Varun nahin yeh aandhi hai, doosra Sanjay Gandhi hai (Varun Gandhi is like a storm, he is another Sanjay Gandhi)”. – HT

Says Varun Gandhi of BJP on his campaign trail to make L K Advani the next Prime Minister of India. He is 29. Can you take this? Another nakli Gandhi for like another five decades.

But if there is anyone out there who believes what Varun Gandhi says, like the BJP which might be having gleeful visions of a Saffron Gandhi, they’ll most probably be proven wrong before the 2009 political season ends. Because there is none other more Secular than a Gandhi. It doesn’t matter to a Gandhi if you slaughter a cow, a muslim or a sikh. It doesn’t matter to a Gandhi if you do shilanyas or destroy a mosque or you forcibly castrate a thousand. It doesn’t matter to a Gandhi if you are a tamil terrorist or an Akali radical. Capitalism, socialism or public or private banks don’t matter. Nuclear deal or no deal does not matter. Forcible evictions for a car factory or a Kalawati doesn’t matter. Democracy or Article 356 or Emergency does not matter. All that matters to a Gandhi is the Gandhi’s right to power. In every possible way, a Gandhi is truly secular. Only arguable exception is Mohandas Karamchand asli Gandhi. Then again, even Varun wouldn’t dream of being a doosra Sanjay Gandhi. One reason is India has changed.  But a more persuasive reason is that Sanjay Gandhi’s mother’s name meant ‘India’ at one point in time.

The Gandhis contesting on the Congress ticket at least seem to have come to terms with their mortal nature, given the pre-poll alliances they are building. But some people back home in Kerala seem to be so keenly out of touch with reality (like  nakli Iron Man of India’s website) that they are indeed as Varun nakli Gandhi says ‘raising their middle fingers’ at Hindus.

Like Archbishop Daniel Acharuparambil of the Latin Catholic Church.

The powerful Latin Catholic Church in Kerala has written to Congress president Sonia Gandhi urging the party to consider Hybi Eden, chief of the Congress’ student wing, as party candidate for the Ernakulam Lok Sabha seat. – The Hindu

‘Powerful‘ as in,

Ironically, whenever the church sponsored a Congress candidate, with public statements and pastoral letters, he lost. Edezhath, a close confidant of the high priests, lost by over 70,000 votes to an LDF independent in 2004. – DNA

Here, as I am located, in the heart of the Ernakulam constituency, this stupid letter which claims even the number of votes Acharuparambil has will do no good to the candidate, the Congress party or the larger Catholic interests but will only help consolidate Hindu and Muslim votes in favour of CPM’s arguably weakest candidate in the state – Sindhu Joy. If Hybi is indeed the candidate and if Sindhu defeats him, Acharuparambil Archbishop will have to wear a uniquely malayali ‘thorthu mundu’ over his head while he ventures out of his den in Varapuzha.

Perhaps what Acharuparambil Archbishop should have done was to take a leaf out of Nair Service Society’s (NSS) Narayana Panicker’s Book of Strategics. This is how it goes – tell the media that you’ll defeat 10 candidates (across 20 constituencies), and tell them that the names are secret. After the election, minimum 20 candidates will be defeated, and then, THEN tell the media how effective you were in defeating 10 people and claim how powerful Samsthakerala Nairs are.

P.S: The two parties, CPM and Congress who fight for the torch of Indian Secularism, could may be go through this very simple test to prove their secularism (at least in the next 20 years) – A Christian Candidate in Malappuram or Ponnani; A Hindu Candidate in Eranakulam and a A Muslim Candidate in Kottayam.(how about next 50 years?)