Cross Posted in Bodhi Commons – liberating Thoughts, reclaiming Commons

Because if you remember 1991-1996, and 2001-2006, and what we collectively went through as a group of helpless people with no semblance of a government, you don’t want a 2011-2017. Because on an evening in May 2001, Eliyas John of NTV, producer of then popular news programme “Aniyara”, a vocal critic of the then left front government, summarized the election results that came in, in this way -

“This programme has been a harsh critic of the Nayanar government. But tonight we feel sad that Kerala is losing another left democratic government. Because if history is any indicator, we have nothing much to hope for in the next five years”. Short and sad. But if anyone remembers the UDF reign from 2001 to 2006, you might have that sinking feeling on the night of May 13th, whichever party you voted for.

Now in case you don’t remember stuff from 5 years back, these names might ring a bell -

Do you remember Nalakath Soopy? I clearly remember the Minister for Education, a person handling one of the most tricky and critical departments in Kerala, as a student activist. Soopy was a fool, to put it lightly. A senior congress minister admitted that Soopy didn’t get it, and another doubted if Soopy had seen a school veranda given the way he conducted himself in cabinet and outside. But Soopy reigned over the education sector for 4 long nightmarish years. 4 long nightmare years at the end of which A.K. Antony expressed his disgust over how minority institutions have let the people of Kerala down. A.K.Antony had to step down as Chief Minister, and Soopy went back to eating koi biriyani he made out of Kerala’s educational sector.

Hightlight: “Pennum Koiyiyum” in reference to this classic painting.

Do you remember P.Sankaran? The Karunakaran loyalist who ran Health for 4 years? Do you remember how he sleep walked through Kerala’s much touted health sector with no clue what he was speaking about. Do you remember him complaining about the fact that no one listens to him anywhere. Malabar owes a lot to rest of Kerala for sending Soopy and this gentleman to Thiruvanathapuram.

Do you remember Cherkalam Abdullah? the man who replaced and was succeeded by Paloli, to run the most critical experiment in the Kerala Model. Do you remember him making egg scramble out of the People’s Plan campaign initiated by the Nayanar government and referred by Nobel winning economists as the most important experiment in any third world country? He was another lucky dude from Malabar who escaped multiple corruption charges along with P.Sankaran and T.M. Jacob because the limelight of corruption and decadence, and the opposition’s ire was monopolized by another fine gentleman from Malabar – P.K.Kunjalikutty.

Now if education, health, and local self government seem unimportant to you, we should look at the Ministry of Industries.

Kunjalikutty demonstrates what he will do with Kerala come May 13th. Something like ‘up yours’

I’m sure you remember P.K.Kunjalikutty. And unlike Soopy, Sankaran, and Abdullah, Kunjalikutty has not gone anywhere. He will be back as a deputy Chief Minister if UDF wins this election. Haha the ides of May.

So you remember Balakrishna Pillai I guess. The Minister for Transportation, and long serving minister for power. He is in Poojapura central jail. He did file a review petition, and the court said fuck off.

Do you remember Kuriyartutti-Karappara? also known as T.M.Jacob’s route to join his fellow Kerala Congress man in Poojapura Jail.

Do you remember M.V.Raghavan? This gentleman spend his five long years as Minister for Co-operatives and Ports, as a long fight to win the control of Pariyaram Medical College. He did score a couple of points against arch nemesis CPM, but then he kept saying no to the vizhinjam port and then slept over it as pressure built up.

Do you remember Gowriamma? The question was less about whether Agriculture sector in Kerala will survive the monsoon, and more about will Gowriamma survive the rainy season. She is still there. Respect.

Do you remember M.A.Kuttapan? A pawn in the long squabble between the Karunakaran and Ommen Chandy groups. Thats all i remember about him.

Do you remember Kadavoor Sivadasan? The man who inherited a state without power cuts, and then totally derailed the Vision 2000 gains made by Pinarayi Vijayan as Minister for Power. Kadavoor though gained his share of notoriety by distributing pamphelts during election season to split Ezhava votes against Mercykutty Amma. He won the election, though the matter was taken up by the court. That remains his only achievement.

Do you remember K.Sudhakaran? Otherwise this video might help.

Do you remember Vakkom Purushu? The man who officiated during Ommen’s absence and was finance minister. And many of us think Veerappan was the biggest sandal wood smuggler. Then of course Andamans is not India, though cellular jail wasn’t the biggest crime that happened in Andamans.

That my fellow Malayalis was the UDF cabinet of 2001-2006.

I am skipping the treacherous Smart City Deal, the “GIM”mmick, Kodoth episode, Black Sands controversy, K.Karunakaran, Pappykutty, and totally skipping the 1991-96 cabinet with the likes of Musthafa, Pillai, Padmarajan, and Ommen.

The choice in front of the electorate in Kerala is amply clear.  Have things changed in the UDF? How did the UDF perform in the opposition? Can Ramesh Chennithala frame a coherent policy and articulate it? Have you ever seen him do that – Other than say things like “..if we come to power we will bring 2 smart cities” (one in Puthupally and the other in Mavelikkara ofcourse). Cannot sum up the Ommen Chandy opposition’s performance better than this -

“കേരളത്തിലെ പ്രതിപക്ഷത്തിന്റെ പ്രവര്‍ത്തനം അല്‍പത്തരങ്ങളുടെ ആകെത്തുകയാണ്. രാഷ്ട്രീയ കാരണങ്ങളാല്‍ ചില മാധ്യമങ്ങള്‍ ഈ അല്‍പത്തരങ്ങളെ ആഘോഷമാക്കി മാറ്റുന്നുവെന്നു മാത്രം.”

Berly summarizes it with a classic curtain raiser,

കേരളത്തില്‍ നിയമസഭാ തിരഞ്ഞെടുപ്പു കഴിഞ്ഞു എന്നും നമ്മളെല്ലാവരും കൂടി ഉമ്മന്‍ ചാണ്ടിയുടെ നേതൃത്വത്തിലുള്ള സര്‍ക്കാരിനെ വോട്ടു ചെയ്ത് വിജയിപ്പിച്ചു നിര്‍ത്തിയിരിക്കുകയാണെന്നും ഇപ്പോഴത്തെ സര്‍ക്കാര്‍ കാലാവധി കഴിഞ്ഞിറങ്ങുന്ന മുറയ്‍്ക്ക് ആ ടീം കയറി ഭരണം തുടങ്ങുമെന്നുമുള്ള കാര്യങ്ങള്‍ ഞാന്‍ മാത്രമേ അറിയാത്തതായുള്ളോ അതോ നിങ്ങളും അറിഞ്ഞിട്ടില്ലേ ?

ഇന്നലത്തെ ബജറ്റിനെപ്പറ്റിയുള്ള യുഡിഎഫുകാരുടെ പ്രതികരണം കണ്ടപ്പോള്‍ മുതലാണ് എനിക്കു സംശയം തോന്നിത്തുടങ്ങിയത്. ബാലകൃഷ്ണപിള്ള അകത്തുപോയി. പാമൊലിന്‍ കേസിലേക്ക് ഉമ്മന്‍ ചാണ്ടിയെക്കൂടി വലിച്ചിടാന്‍ മുസ്തഫ ആഞ്ഞു ശ്രമിക്കുന്നുണ്ട്. കുരിയാര്‍കുറ്റി-കാരപ്പാറ പദ്ധതി അഴിമതി കേസില്‍ ജേക്കബിന്റെ കാര്യവും കയ്യാലപ്പുറത്താണ്. കുഞ്ഞാലിക്കുട്ടി സാഹിബ് ഐസ്ക്രീം കേസില്‍ പാറിപ്പറന്നു നില്‍ക്കുകയാണ്. അഥവാ മണ്ടന്മാരായ നമ്മള്‍ വോട്ടു ചയ്തു വിജയിപ്പിച്ചാലും യുഡിഎഫില്‍ ഗൗരിയമ്മയും മാണിസാറുമല്ലാതെ വല്ലവരും പുറത്തുണ്ടാവുമോ എന്നുറപ്പു പറയാറായിട്ടില്ല. മുഖ്യമന്ത്രിയാവാന്‍ റെഡിയാണെന്ന മട്ടില്‍ വയലാര്‍ രവി ഗദ്ഗദങ്ങള്‍ പുറപ്പെടുവിക്കുന്നുണ്ട്. എല്ലാവരും അകത്തുപോകുന്ന സാഹചര്യം വന്നാല്‍ കെ.മുരളീധരനു പോലും സ്വപ്നങ്ങള്‍ നെയ്യേണ്ടി വരും.

The choice is not roundabout. It is clear. If you are voting for your caste or your religion, none of the above matters. Nor does 1991-1996 or 2001-2006. And we’ll see the clear divisions across districts with CPM carrying the southern districts and the north and madhya Keralam voting for the right. A very plausible scenario.

But if you are looking for a government which hits the right buttons with a 20 year vision for the state, which does not sell out our precious assets and our land, which has clear policies for human development and the ability to execute that on multiple fronts, which does not bow to the pressures of retrograde caste and religious organizations, which has a cabinet of people who know what they are talking about, which makes Kerala rank consistently as the best state in India – You might want to put some effort, drink some coffee, take a deep breath, and try to remember 2006. And try to remember what we went through as a group of helpless people with no semblance of a government. Because otherwise, if history is any indicator, things will fall apart and the center will not hold. 2011-2016 will be a nightmare.

Thanks to Nita and the Hindu for that, and for its commendable stand on the Mullaperiyar issue, and thanks to day’s Hindu for ignoring this statement from a self-proclaimed SOB. (I already have one ongi at this dude after the smoking ban).  Mullaperiyar I believe should be the top-priority of all bloggers from Kerala.

You can read part of the facebook-email conversation I had with Nita below,

1. something basic first…why do u blog? what do u get out of it?

Here’s my post on this.. Why do I blog (Diaries link)

Blog for me is a very effective medium of asynchronous communication. Its good for me because I can say anything I want and unlike a direct conversation I dont have to necessarily listen to what the other person says. In conversations I find other people dumb and unimaginative, so I often prefer a one way conversation. You can say I should start a radio station then. But blogs are cost effective.

2.. unlike most blogs by most mallus u stuck to Kerala, specifically Tvm issues i.e. local content..why is that?y not something like say abt ur feelings on hugo chavez for want of a bettr example?

I try to get involved with the community I live in. But you can search Talkies, it will have everything from Bukowski to Chavez to Obama to Tharoor. But local content was important for me, because compared to many other cities I’ve been to – Trivandrum’s cultural scene is great and its not dumb like many other cities. Plus when there is a Mohanlal movie releasing and there is a credit crisis in Western Europe, I do show some editorial discretion.

3. what kind of response do u get? how do u weigh that in with follow ups that u may have? is it again local? or is it varied? whatkind of thrill do they get out of it?

I have gone on dates through my blog, its thats good. Some people do like me, others will. But there have been very rude responses as well, but I kinda like them. I often pickup fights and prove that I am not a statistic. Then I expect an amount of decorum in the blog when comments go above 20, its like its my blog and I dont ask for your credit card information – so be nice.

4. do u feel that ur blogs have made an impact…in at least making peoople aware?

To some extent, yes. Especially on the text book controversy and Tharoors election. But I would stop at awareness. I wish there were more fans who treat me like God, but that hasnt happened yet.

5. has it bot some change to tvm…or the way plp view tvm?

No. I dont try to sell Trivandrum. Seriously, the place is so good and I will live here forever. But I dont want to convert and bring people to Trivandrum. The Ulloor-Srikaryam road is already crowded.

P.S: Here’s to Maharashtra for ensuring the spectacular defeat of the Indian Right.

P.P.S: In other news, Vatican endorses Karl Marx

When one looks at Shashi Tharoor’s candidature, these are the questions that pop-up

Is he the better candidate?

Why should he win?

What do I need from my MP?

Can he win?

I have a feeling that this one is going to be long.

I was in Picador the other day reading reviews of Naomi Klein’s new book. Curiously, a very balanced review in Washington Post was written by the man who could be our new MP. Just another reason to so adore this man who was one of my favourite authors of fiction and non-fiction when I was in school. Then again I have graduated from school and politics is another game altogether.

The Trivandrum Lok Sabha constituency has returned bigger guns to Lok Sabha (including M N Govindan Nair, PK Vasudevan Nair and K Karunakaran), but Shashi Tharoor has an international repute and a spectacular resume that comes a close second to our one time MP and Defense Minister who delivered the longest speech in the United Nations. Then again, resumes don’t explain the political aftermath (or the math) because Trivandrum defeated ONV Kurup when he contested against the ‘universally accepted useless’ A Charles.

Is Tharoor the better candidate?

I am not sure. But he is a different kind of candidate who comes very rarely. His personal achievements are things which an average Malayali politician cannot even start to imagine. But is he a better candidate compared to Ramachandran Nair who has spent the last thirty years involved in local issues and participated in people’s movements while personally achieving nothing. Tharoor’s intellect is more than enough to impress me as a netizen and a blogger, but Tharoor’s understanding of local issues I suspect may be influenced a little too far by the internet and the vocal upper middle-class opinion thats pasted around it.

This could be Tharoor’s advantage too. Ramachandran Nair, the CPI candidate, while outlining his vision, seemed to be tied down by the reality that development will only happen in incremental steps (he talked about setting up a night time resting place for homeless and vagabonds as his urgent priority). May be it is his years of bad experiences that prevents Ramachandran Nair from dreaming big, but Tharoor talked about Trivandrum’s growth into a metropolis of global reckoning. His detailed vision is here (I have seen this before, in several other places, Tharoor has compiled it well)

At a personal level, I felt that Tharoor is struggling to connect. But this could be an initial hiccup, and for all he is worth – thats ok. But lovability and approachability of the candidate is important for the real voter (often mentioned incorrectly as ‘average voter’). If by April 16th, the feeling is that ‘hey! I have touched that thing! It speaks in a curious tongue!’ it could mean a few ten thousand votes lost.

Why Tharoor should win?

If Tharoor is serious about this whole thing, if this is not a short-cut for him to the South Delhi Club or the Indian Cabinet, which I am severely suspicious it is, and if he wants to make Trivandrum home and see it move forward – Then I guess he should be given that chance. But a similar choice was made by Trivandrumites when K Karunakaran was returned to Lok Sabha. The argument was the development brought to Mala (his pet constituency), but K Karunakaran proved to be an apathetic representative. (Though Keralalites thanked Trivandrumites for sending Kannoth Karu far away from the state).

Tharoor can dream big, he can give the city a much needed marketing break, doors that will remain closed to Ramachandran Nair or P K Krishnadas will be open to Tharoor. In simpler terms Tharoor can be a mascot, Tharoor can be an effective lobbyist, and Tharoor has the intellect to be bipartisan.

But the suspicion remains that if Tharoor makes it to the real game in Delhi, will he ever come back? May be its just the tiny insecurity of a small town blogger.

What do I need from my MP?

One rare occasion where I loved L K Advani was when he admonished a person in his electoral rally saying that he was running for Lok Sabha and not for local corporation, and it is not his duty to make sure that GandhiNagar had better roads and better sewage. There were other representatives who were responsible for that. A classic case which is often forgotten. An MP is not about Bijli, Sadak and Pani.

India has a Westminster form of Government where the expectation from an MP is that he legislates effectively and raises concerns at a national level about very important (only very important) issues from his constituency.

In that way Shashi Tharoor will be an effective contributor given his grasp of issues and exceptional diplomatic style. But I would also like to know his stands on Disinvestment, private sector reservation (Congress poll plank), Narendra Modi, India’s relationship with Iran, his stand on Palestine, his stand on Special Economic Zones, and most importantly I want to know if he will go on an indefinite hunger strike if the ASEAN trade pact, which will break the backbone of Kerala, goes through.

And then, the toughest of questions.

Can Shashi Tharoor lose?

Candidates are: Ramachandran Nair (CPI), Shashi Tharoor (Congress), PK Krishnadas (BJP – State President), Neelalohitadasan Nadar (BSP), Vijayan Thomas (Congress Rebel) and MP Gangadharan (NCP – former minister)

Trivandrum constituency is spread across 7 assembly divisions and is as Ajay pointed out, Kerala’s only constituency with a clearly urban bias. Yet another factor that favours Tharoor is the floating vote between the Left and Anti-Left divide which O Rajagopal of BJP used to capitalize on. These along with a very high probability of Congress returning to power and strong anti-incumbency in the state should have delivered Trivandrum in a platter to Tharoor. But things are not so rosy as it seems and this is why -

1. The anti-incumbency was expected to give a landslide to the UDF. But there is no wave on the surface, and anti-incumbency does not seem to be strong enough. There might be actually no landslide, and the CPM led front may romp home with something like 10-12 seats. Then again, even in 2001, there was supposedly no visibly strong anti-left wave, but UDF came home with 100 seats. Plus Lok Sabha elections has historically been a pro-Congress affair in the state.

2. Vijayan Thomas & V S Shivakumar factor: Vijayan Thomas (the Congress rebel) has created ripples within the Congress party’s electoral machine with his candidature. His money machine may not actually divide many Congress votes but it can dampen and slowdown Tharoor’s campaign. The Church which has its own flock in the coastal regions has not taken kindly to Vijayan Thomas being denied the Congress ticket.

V S Shivakumar, ex-MP and DCC president, can hurt Tharoor’s chances with his non-involvement (another ticket loser). He can also ruin Tharoor’s chances in his homeground and critical assembly segment of Neyyattinkara. This along with the perception that Tharoor is the High Command’s Candidate who landed here on a balloon, could keep the average congress worker off the campaign trail. If the campaign posters across the city are anything to go by, Tharoor trails Ramachandran Nair, Neelan and Krishnadas by a large extent.

3. Mayawati’s Neelan: BSP’s Neelalohitadasan Nadar could end up grabbing a sizable chunk of the Nadar-Dalit vote, a critical segment for the Congress. There is a strong undercurrent in favour of Neelan and with a six way split, he could even be a close third or even finish second. The rhetoric of Mayawati for PM (BSP’s national campaign was launched in Trivandrum), and Neelan for a plump Cabinet berth may sink well with the dalits, nadars and Muslims. The Kovalam belt can hurt the CPI, and Neelan’s impact on Kazhakuttam and Parassala could ruin the Congress.

4. The other ‘N’ and the ‘I’ group: While Neelan makes a considerable impact on the Nadar vote, BJPs PK Krishnadas and NCP’s M P Gangadharan could split the anti-left Nair vote. BJP has fielded its state president in this prestige fight and chances of RSS selling votes to Congress seems unlikely because of that. But at the same time, CPM’s new sleeping partner Maudhany could provoke a severe backlash amongst Nairs in favour of Tharoor and Krishnadas. Trivandrum is a K Karunakaran stronghold and a segment of the Nair vote has been with his group for long. The indifference of the ‘I’ group voter towards the so-called ‘Ommen Congress’ may end up helping MP Gangadharan, the NCP candidate. There is also a feeling that Muraleedharan is being victimised for a little too long. For Murali, Tharoor’s defeat will be a proving a point.

To sum it up, Tharoor’s campaign has not gathered steam, and the Congress party machinery seems to be failing him. But even at this juncture, Tharoor remains a front-runner and a candidate who holds some promise. There are people who vote based on a candidate’s qualities, people who vote for a candidate’s utility, people who vote for special interests, and those who vote for ideology. Whatever be their way of voting, I hope the voters in Trivandrum are given a chance to make an informed decision by the campaign teams. This election result will be a pointer towards which way we are headed.

Update 3/29:

Vijayan Thomas INC (Rebel) withdraws from contesting, decides to fully support Tharoor. Ramachandran Nair still leads Tharoor almost two to one in terms of campaign reach.

Ramachandran Nair’s vision is here

New Pastoral letter read across Churches on Sunday calls for defeating atheists and people who promote atheism [Now that they were successful in making Hybi Eden candidate for Ernakulam]

Update 3/30:

The day’s ‘Samakalika Malayalam’ talks about a big split in the BJP vote in Trivandrum which could favour Tharoor, an understanding between K Karunakaran and the CPI to return Ramachandran Nair from Trivandrum and Karunakaran’s own Peethambara Kurup from Kollam, a heavy Janata Dal play to split left votes in Trivandrum to help Neelan which in turn could help Tharoor, and about a seemingly dangerous resentment among Congress workers towards Tharoor, which will help Nair. I wish I had attended the Permutations & Combinations lesson in School instead of cutting class and going for Mohanlal’s Ayal Kadhayezhuthukayanu

Update 5/16:
Tharoor wins by a landslide. BJP is pushed to the 4th place with Neelan creating a record of sorts for the BSP by coming in 3rd.