Can Shashi Tharoor lose in Trivandrum?

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Can Shashi Tharoor lose in Trivandrum?

This is an exciting election in Trivandrum. There is an UNPRECEDENTED 6 way contest (which probably will be a national record) and each of the candidates is a ‘Big Gun’ in different ways and could poll upwards of 50,000 votes in a constituency where an average of 6-7 lakh votes are cast. But when we look back on 2009 Elections, I guess we’ll remember it by whether Shashi Tharoor won or lost. The situation is fast emerging and changing at a break-neck speed. Last week, Ajay and me were wondering about Tharoor’s margin, but this week it seems almost given that Tharoor may not make it after all. Without a miracle.

When one looks at Shashi Tharoor’s candidature, these are the questions that pop-up

Is he the better candidate?

Why should he win?

What do I need from my MP?

Can he win?

I have a feeling that this one is going to be long.


I was in Picador the other day reading reviews of Naomi Klein’s new book. Curiously, a very balanced review in Washington Post was written by the man who could be our new MP. Just another reason to so adore this man who was one of my favourite authors of fiction and non-fiction when I was in school. Then again I have graduated from school and politics is another game altogether.

The Trivandrum Lok Sabha constituency has returned bigger guns to Lok Sabha (including M N Govindan Nair, PK Vasudevan Nair and K Karunakaran), but Shashi Tharoor has an international repute and a spectacular resume that comes a close second to our one time MP and Defense Minister who delivered the longest speech in the United Nations. Then again, resumes don’t explain the political aftermath (or the math) because Trivandrum defeated ONV Kurup when he contested against the ‘universally accepted useless’ A Charles.

Is Tharoor the better candidate?

I am not sure. But he is a different kind of candidate who comes very rarely. His personal achievements are things which an average Malayali politician cannot even start to imagine. But is he a better candidate compared to Ramachandran Nair who has spent the last thirty years involved in local issues and participated in people’s movements while personally achieving nothing. Tharoor’s intellect is more than enough to impress me as a netizen and a blogger, but Tharoor’s understanding of local issues I suspect may be influenced a little too far by the internet and the vocal upper middle-class opinion thats pasted around it.

This could be Tharoor’s advantage too. Ramachandran Nair, the CPI candidate, while outlining his vision, seemed to be tied down by the reality that development will only happen in incremental steps (he talked about setting up a night time resting place for homeless and vagabonds as his urgent priority). May be it is his years of bad experiences that prevents Ramachandran Nair from dreaming big, but Tharoor talked about Trivandrum’s growth into a metropolis of global reckoning. His detailed vision is here (I have seen this before, in several other places, Tharoor has compiled it well)

At a personal level, I felt that Tharoor is struggling to connect. But this could be an initial hiccup, and for all he is worth – thats ok. But lovability and approachability of the candidate is important for the real voter (often mentioned incorrectly as ‘average voter’). If by April 16th, the feeling is that ‘hey! I have touched that thing! It speaks in a curious tongue!’ it could mean a few ten thousand votes lost.

Why Tharoor should win?

If Tharoor is serious about this whole thing, if this is not a short-cut for him to the South Delhi Club or the Indian Cabinet, which I am severely suspicious it is, and if he wants to make Trivandrum home and see it move forward – Then I guess he should be given that chance. But a similar choice was made by Trivandrumites when K Karunakaran was returned to Lok Sabha. The argument was the development brought to Mala (his pet constituency), but K Karunakaran proved to be an apathetic representative. (Though Keralalites thanked Trivandrumites for sending Kannoth Karu far away from the state).

Tharoor can dream big, he can give the city a much needed marketing break, doors that will remain closed to Ramachandran Nair or P K Krishnadas will be open to Tharoor. In simpler terms Tharoor can be a mascot, Tharoor can be an effective lobbyist, and Tharoor has the intellect to be bipartisan.

But the suspicion remains that if Tharoor makes it to the real game in Delhi, will he ever come back? May be its just the tiny insecurity of a small town blogger.

What do I need from my MP?

One rare occasion where I loved L K Advani was when he admonished a person in his electoral rally saying that he was running for Lok Sabha and not for local corporation, and it is not his duty to make sure that GandhiNagar had better roads and better sewage. There were other representatives who were responsible for that. A classic case which is often forgotten. An MP is not about Bijli, Sadak and Pani.

India has a Westminster form of Government where the expectation from an MP is that he legislates effectively and raises concerns at a national level about very important (only very important) issues from his constituency.

In that way Shashi Tharoor will be an effective contributor given his grasp of issues and exceptional diplomatic style. But I would also like to know his stands on Disinvestment, private sector reservation (Congress poll plank), Narendra Modi, India’s relationship with Iran, his stand on Palestine, his stand on Special Economic Zones, and most importantly I want to know if he will go on an indefinite hunger strike if the ASEAN trade pact, which will break the backbone of Kerala, goes through.

And then, the toughest of questions.

Can Shashi Tharoor lose?

Candidates are: Ramachandran Nair (CPI), Shashi Tharoor (Congress), PK Krishnadas (BJP – State President), Neelalohitadasan Nadar (BSP), Vijayan Thomas (Congress Rebel) and MP Gangadharan (NCP – former minister)

Trivandrum constituency is spread across 7 assembly divisions and is as Ajay pointed out, Kerala’s only constituency with a clearly urban bias. Yet another factor that favours Tharoor is the floating vote between the Left and Anti-Left divide which O Rajagopal of BJP used to capitalize on. These along with a very high probability of Congress returning to power and strong anti-incumbency in the state should have delivered Trivandrum in a platter to Tharoor. But things are not so rosy as it seems and this is why –

1. The anti-incumbency was expected to give a landslide to the UDF. But there is no wave on the surface, and anti-incumbency does not seem to be strong enough. There might be actually no landslide, and the CPM led front may romp home with something like 10-12 seats. Then again, even in 2001, there was supposedly no visibly strong anti-left wave, but UDF came home with 100 seats. Plus Lok Sabha elections has historically been a pro-Congress affair in the state.

2. Vijayan Thomas & V S Shivakumar factor: Vijayan Thomas (the Congress rebel) has created ripples within the Congress party’s electoral machine with his candidature. His money machine may not actually divide many Congress votes but it can dampen and slowdown Tharoor’s campaign. The Church which has its own flock in the coastal regions has not taken kindly to Vijayan Thomas being denied the Congress ticket.

V S Shivakumar, ex-MP and DCC president, can hurt Tharoor’s chances with his non-involvement (another ticket loser). He can also ruin Tharoor’s chances in his homeground and critical assembly segment of Neyyattinkara. This along with the perception that Tharoor is the High Command’s Candidate who landed here on a balloon, could keep the average congress worker off the campaign trail. If the campaign posters across the city are anything to go by, Tharoor trails Ramachandran Nair, Neelan and Krishnadas by a large extent.

3. Mayawati’s Neelan: BSP’s Neelalohitadasan Nadar could end up grabbing a sizable chunk of the Nadar-Dalit vote, a critical segment for the Congress. There is a strong undercurrent in favour of Neelan and with a six way split, he could even be a close third or even finish second. The rhetoric of Mayawati for PM (BSP’s national campaign was launched in Trivandrum), and Neelan for a plump Cabinet berth may sink well with the dalits, nadars and Muslims. The Kovalam belt can hurt the CPI, and Neelan’s impact on Kazhakuttam and Parassala could ruin the Congress.

4. The other ‘N’ and the ‘I’ group: While Neelan makes a considerable impact on the Nadar vote, BJPs PK Krishnadas and NCP’s M P Gangadharan could split the anti-left Nair vote. BJP has fielded its state president in this prestige fight and chances of RSS selling votes to Congress seems unlikely because of that. But at the same time, CPM’s new sleeping partner Maudhany could provoke a severe backlash amongst Nairs in favour of Tharoor and Krishnadas. Trivandrum is a K Karunakaran stronghold and a segment of the Nair vote has been with his group for long. The indifference of the ‘I’ group voter towards the so-called ‘Ommen Congress’ may end up helping MP Gangadharan, the NCP candidate. There is also a feeling that Muraleedharan is being victimised for a little too long. For Murali, Tharoor’s defeat will be a proving a point.

To sum it up, Tharoor’s campaign has not gathered steam, and the Congress party machinery seems to be failing him. But even at this juncture, Tharoor remains a front-runner and a candidate who holds some promise. There are people who vote based on a candidate’s qualities, people who vote for a candidate’s utility, people who vote for special interests, and those who vote for ideology. Whatever be their way of voting, I hope the voters in Trivandrum are given a chance to make an informed decision by the campaign teams. This election result will be a pointer towards which way we are headed.

Update 3/29:

Vijayan Thomas INC (Rebel) withdraws from contesting, decides to fully support Tharoor. Ramachandran Nair still leads Tharoor almost two to one in terms of campaign reach.


Ramachandran Nair’s vision is here

New Pastoral letter read across Churches on Sunday calls for defeating atheists and people who promote atheism 🙂 [Now that they were successful in making Hybi Eden candidate for Ernakulam]

Update 3/30:

The day’s ‘Samakalika Malayalam’ talks about a big split in the BJP vote in Trivandrum which could favour Tharoor, an understanding between K Karunakaran and the CPI to return Ramachandran Nair from Trivandrum and Karunakaran’s own Peethambara Kurup from Kollam, a heavy Janata Dal play to split left votes in Trivandrum to help Neelan which in turn could help Tharoor, and about a seemingly dangerous resentment among Congress workers towards Tharoor, which will help Nair. I wish I had attended the Permutations & Combinations lesson in School instead of cutting class and going for Mohanlal’s Ayal Kadhayezhuthukayanu 🙂

Update 5/16:
Tharoor wins by a landslide. BJP is pushed to the 4th place with Neelan creating a record of sorts for the BSP by coming in 3rd.

By | 2017-12-18T01:15:40-05:00 March 26th, 2009|Kerala, Trivandrum|240 Comments


  1. Alex March 27, 2009 at 1:19 am

    If Tharoor wins and becomes a minister chances of other senior congressmen like kv thomas becoming one will diminish. So its sure he will not get support from many party workers and corporate medias like manorama.

  2. scorpiogenius March 27, 2009 at 3:36 am

    Some shrewd observations there Brahma, I actually read it twice, to get all the finer points.Thanks for the analysis. We couldn’t get a better one. 🙂

    Tell you what, Shashi Tharoor may well end up third in Trivandrum, thats the shocking part of the tale. But have you considered how many new voters are there in Trivandrum? A good chunk of these youngsters are going to pitch in for Tharoor, including the traditionally ‘red’ votes, but as you said it could be a splinter group.

    I’ve come across a good few “young n thinking” comrades who are campaigning for Tharoor, because they are captivated by his vision. The voters in the erstwhile North, West and East assembly areas could be Tharoor’s forte, but how many will come out for the exercise on April 16? 75% and we are there, are we? (I’m talking for Tharoor ok?? 🙂 ). These constituencies have shown the least voter % in the last few elections.

    But we desperately need Tharoor to win the dash to New Delhi from Tvm, dont we, and of all times, now, we’ve got the track full! He represents the last hope of a place cruelly and repeatedly neglected for decades by our representatives. If Rajagopal could gobble up 225 grand punches against his name, then Tharoor could well grab >300 K. That should be it, I’d say.

    These are the ordinary HOPES of an ordinary citizen. Hope May 16 wont be a shocker to us, for God’s sake.

  3. vinod/kakka March 27, 2009 at 5:58 am

    Reg ONV v/s Charles: I guess UDF made a huge point about NOT sending an artist to Parliament. The argument was that he is a great poet, but his political skills are not that good. ONV did not do his cause much good by going poetic during his campaign. Oduvil Nadar Vijachu 🙂
    I guess part of the Charles Phenomenon was the entire support of the CSI church (He used to be district chairman of the laymans forum, so every CSI person kind of knew him) + Karunakaran + UDF votes could send him to Delhi for sleeping.

    Reg ASEAN etc: I am pretty sure that Tharoor will not go on hunger strike against any of these. But arent we sure that all of our LDF MPs and the MLAs etc will do that? We will not get an MP who fulfills everybodys wishes, I guess.

    From looking at Kovalam Assembly election when Neelan did an independent, he split the LDF vote right down the middle, but did not really affect the UDF vote – he came in second, the vote split was ~50% UDF, ~25 to LDF official and Neelan – So, if I were LDF, I would be jittery. Most of the UDF/Nadar votes will still go to UDF: Neelan got their votes in 1980, but lost it in 1984. I do not think that the Nadar vote of Kazhakoottam will break for Neelan (I would have been a Nadar voter in Kazhakoottam if I were still a RI).

  4. scorpiogenius March 27, 2009 at 3:18 pm

    hey, perhaps the first of the miracles are here; courtesy Vijayan Thomas —>

  5. Nikhil Narayanan March 27, 2009 at 4:08 pm


    Respect dude,great job.Was planning to do something similar, will try adding on whatever I feel you have missed(tough job for me,now).

    Assuming that all the contestants are *similar* in delivering their duties as an MP,like you mentioned the power to lobby makes a huge difference.
    Since, Vijayan Thomas has been tackled,some more support can be expected from the Church;VT has declared his support for Shashi Tharoor.

    Neelan,unfortunately can eat up some votes which may end up being crucial.
    Would an NCP affect much?How many votes will MP Gangadharan get, 2000? Does he all?

    ‘ASEAN trade pact’ can be sorted out by ways other than hunger strikes, right?Discussions and diplomacy? (On a related note, have read that ONGC Videsh *won* some oil wells bid in Russia after India offered to buy defense air crafts)


    PS:When did the template change happen?I have not been to TVMTalkies for quite sometime.

  6. Payyan March 28, 2009 at 6:41 am

    Great write-up dude…The moment i heard that Shashi Tharoor was contesting from TVM, the first thing tht ran thru my mind was, “OMG, this might not be the place for him” 🙂 I personally feel tht tvm wud be tough for him coz of the sheer suspicion of the ppl over here tht he might vanish into south bloc after the elections. I think tht might well be the sentiment of the so-called “neutral voters”. For all tht is said abt them in the media and public, I believe tht we still love our politicians and would not want to sub them with someone who does not look as crooked. 😉
    Besides, I feel tht the effect Shashi Tharoor would have in the higher echelons of INC wud be minimal. For all tht he is worth, he is still a newcomer and could very well get sidelined in Delhi. He is perceived to lack the arrogance and stubbornness of a politician. Strangely, for tht sole reason, the neutrals may go against him. I would like to see him wun AND MAKE A DIFFERENCE. But like you, i very much doubt it.

  7. Ajay March 28, 2009 at 1:29 pm

    As BVN said, and as a lot of you have echoed, one of the key parameters determining the fate of Tharoor’s candidature is the voter turnout. Anything lower than 55-60% seals it for Ramachandran Nair. A 70% turnout could tip the outcome well in Tharoor’s favour. He should keep his fingers crossed for a nice, cool day and for as many voters as possible to be in town, for the holidays or whatever.

  8. Ninan March 28, 2009 at 3:44 pm

    Hello Guys,

    I beg to differ with the general opinion here.
    I don’t think Sashi Tharoor is the right guy for tvm. I was present in a couple of election conventions and he can just not connect with the common people.

    One important question remains unanswered. I can understand Trivandrum gaining from Sashi Tharoor , but why is Sashi Tharoor in trivandrum?
    I cannot buy the fact that Tharoor is here to make trivanrum a global city. He is here because he lobbyed for a seat in loksabha elections and got trivandrum. I don’t think it would made any difference for him if it was timbaktu or trivandrum.Atleast that is what I understand from his election.I was there to support him in 2 conventions and then could not make myself go to the third one.

    I would still vote for him(atleast thats waht i think now), but my father is lobbying for Ramachandran Nair. They are both from SMV School. He cities that a person like Ramachandran nair who has seen tvm, gone through hardships, fought his way up should be the mascot for tvm and not Sashi Tharoor. We are having big arguements on this one.

    More and more I think about it I can’t see Sashi Tharoor with 21 crores spread across the world with a american wife( saw the photo in Kerala Kaumudi ) sticking to trivandrum.I don’t think he will contest from tvm in the next election what ever be the case. I ready to bet my bottom dollar on this one.


  9. Gauri March 29, 2009 at 2:58 am

    Tharoor is a American/Iraiel backed, having spent ard 30 yrs in UN, has american wife and does PR for Coke. If he was to make foreign policy along with Italian born Sonia and PM with daughter married to American, how can India have independant corporate and foreign policy? If he is only interested in working for the people of India (forget jst TVM), he wouldnt have become resident of Dubai (instead of India) and register his consultancy Afras Ventures in dubai. Why can he not serve the people of kerala without a government post ?

    He obviously does not want to pay taxes in India, but expects us taxpayers to foot his cushy retirement in India as MP or even minister ? I believe we have better IFS officers like Menon.

    Tharoor is a hypocrite in all he says – he recently asked women journalists in a press conference to wear sarie. Does his american wife do the same??? he cannot fight elections in his own Pallakad as he is the PR agent of Coke which has depleted the water body level and will be hounded out by the residents. He is power crazy, and only thing he is good at is PR and glib talk, which is what u hear if you talk to any his ex-colleges at UN .

  10. BVN March 29, 2009 at 5:43 am

    ***********First of All, everyone, very insightful comments. I guess it pretty much reflects the decency of the debate currently on in Trivandrum***********************

    Alex, that is if KV Thomas wins 🙂

    Scorpio, As Ajay says in the below comment, a lot depends on the polling percentage. To quote him, if it rains on 16th April or if it doesn’t. O Rajagopal has a familiarity in Tvm which Tharoor may not have. But for the avg voter, even Ramachandran Nair needs an introduction.

  11. BVN March 29, 2009 at 6:19 am

    Vinod, Thanks man! I stand corrected there, to assume that the Nadar vote would split, overlooking the CSI factor. But most of the Nadar votes, as you said, goes to the UDF in a parliamentary election, and Neelan may make a dent in that. (though now the contest reeks of a bipolar slugfest). Thanks again for that input.

    Nikhil, Yes, he will be an effective lobbyist, but his vision doesn’t talk about imperialism, free-trade, and many other things which does matter when you select an MP. Plus an excessive dependency on diplomacy will create backroom operators and not people’s leaders – what say?
    and I think you should make Talkies yr home page 🙂

  12. Nikhil Narayanan March 29, 2009 at 7:11 am

    Agree that lobbying will create an ecosystem around the lobbyist.
    But,such ecosystems exist in every part of the political firmament,right?

    Yes, Talkies is now my homepage 😀


  13. Ninan March 29, 2009 at 10:20 am

    Hello All,

    Found the following site while browsing. Ramachandran Nair’s profile and vision is outlined here.

    The website definitely does not look like a professional and appealing job like Tharoor’s though the point seems to come across.

    – Ninan

  14. BVN March 29, 2009 at 11:46 am

    Payyan, I agree. Plus, this is our first election which is fully televised. That could make or break it for Tharoor because Ramachandran Nair connects well. Actually very well.

    Ajay, yes. Vishu, Good Friday and all will have atleast some NRKs around.

    Ninan, Thanks for the inputs man! The website gives some information abt the candidate which as of now has no online presence. And I completely agree with the concerns you raised ‘Palakkad or Tvm’ wouldnt make a difference to him nor Timbuktu. Thanks for the comment.

  15. BVN March 29, 2009 at 12:04 pm

    Gauri, you almost sound like those people who are so starry eyed about Tharoor that, they say Tharoor will SAVE Trivandrum. While I disagree with them, I cannot but disagree with your criticism of Tharoor. Its a little too polemic and over the board. I have never talked to any of his ex-colleagues in UN 🙂 Have you

  16. Jacob March 29, 2009 at 12:48 pm

    I dont know how a person with International repute like Sashi Tharoor can be compared to our own local bard, ONV Kurup. Other than writing good poems and lyrics which have endeared himself, ONV does not have any administrative assets. I think that Sashi Tharoor is the best candidate that Thiruvananthapuram could ever get. I am really fed up with professional politions, who are in politics because they couldnt get anything else. Talk of being ruled by the rabble. Sashi Tharoor is an accomplished person in many fields. I will try to convince at least 20 to 100 people to vote for him. Only the Congress had the guts to bring in a person like Tharoor and thrust him down the gullets of the wannabe local goons. Some people seem to prefer the college dropouts and the public property saboteurs, its a free country to each his own.

  17. scorpiogenius March 29, 2009 at 1:14 pm

    @ BVN, yeah, Gauri seems to have very close contacts with Tharoor’s collegues and friends. 😉 I’m saying nothing.

    and about Tharoor SAVING Tvm, (in the exact meaning of those block letters as you put it) let me ask one thing: This election is about TRIVANDRUM, and not about Congress, BJP, America, Palestine or Coca Cola, nor about free-trade, imperialism… yeah… Sorry..For once allow us to vote for our city) 🙂 We’ve got Tharoor, Mr. Nair & Krishnaprasad on our plate. Who do you think is the best to argue for the cause of the city?

    Mr. Nair will be another 5 years of Pannyan, and will conclude with a ‘mauna satyagraham’ in 2014. His ‘achievements’ would certainly be rethaching a few schools, construction of toilets, tarring roads and buying X-ray machines for Hospitals. Fair enough if M.P means Member of Panchayat, and not Parliament.

    Krishnaprasad’s lobbying power and reach is a big ??? even if it is BJP on the left side of the seats this time.

    That leaves us Tharoor. Forget the glitz of his CV and lack of proficiency in Malayalam, this is one person who seems to know what this place needs. Perhaps his “vision” is a ploy, his “image” is a farce, but I’m counting on those virtues of top level education, his knowledge of the world and his belief in the people of India/Tvm. As you have written, he might just turn out to be another once-in-a-fiver Banathwala/ Ibrahim, but I doubt if such a disaster would occur with Tharoor.

    Well, Im prepared to take the risk Brahma; you may feel I’m foolishly over-optimistic but I believe the youth of this city have had ENOUGH Pannyans, Charles and rt dodos, ok?

    So as it is, he appears to be the best pick. 🙂

  18. Ninan March 29, 2009 at 3:22 pm


    One quick question – whom did you vote for last time?
    Not to start an argument or to do any retrospection – just out of curiousity.

    @BVN – You are correct. Nair connects quite well. I was watching the program in Manoramanews( KodiPada ). I am starting to like him.

    As of now I have not changed my mind and is supporting Tharoor. my father is getting more and more confident that Nair will win.
    The current situation looks like that for me too.

  19. mathew March 29, 2009 at 5:03 pm

    This should be the best objective analysis about the election scene in trivandrum…excellent thoughts and a balanced view!!

  20. Payyan March 29, 2009 at 10:50 pm

    Thanks for the manifesto links…I just went through the (online) visions of both the candidates vying for my vote in Trivandrum west :). If Mr.Ramachandran Nair is able to maintain that same online image consistently across all forms of media and in public(which should not be a problem for an CPX candidate 😉 ), I dont think Tharoor stands a chance. (Other than the web, i dont have acess to any media form as of now 🙁 ) For all that he says about development, Tharoor still does not come across as a bijli-sadak-pani candidate (he has the word INTERNATIONAL repeated 6 times in his vision, while I dint see that once in Mr.Nair’s). Not that it is good or bad, but even from the online evidence, I suspect that Mr.Tharoor might be missing the “connect” part. Big time.

  21. Ajay March 30, 2009 at 2:25 am

    Well, if having a global outlook and forward looking development vision is a crime, sue me before you deny a vote for Tharoor.

    Mr. Ramachandran Nair talks about new PSUs and Central Govt. Institutions to generate employment. And most of his “development” ideas seem to talk about new water pipes, public comfort stations and what not. That is NOT what an MP is supposed to be for. If it were, MLAs and Corporation Councillors would become superfluous. An MP’s role is as the constituency’s representative on a national level, not on a micro one. His responsibility is to ensure a fair share of developmental initiatives and major projects decided in Delhi not in the local Panchayath office. Mr. Nair never makes even a passing mention of such alien things as a knowledge economy or private sector investment. I am sure he still does not realise that Technopark employs more people directly than the Secretariat, VSSC, Kerala University and Travancore Titanium Products combined.

    His is a vision rooted in the past, forget the present or the future. And even if he wins, the Left is committed to sitting in the Back Benches and raising more hue and cry over Israel than India.

    We have thrown our votes away on so many idiots and liars, many who have spent 50 years in Trivandrum, in the past to little if any effect. Maybe a vote for Tharoor may also be be a wasted one, but I would much rather waste it on the candidate who even has a chance of making a difference.

  22. Jacob March 30, 2009 at 9:17 am

    What is Ramachandran Nair going to do in Parliament? Support Manmohan? or Mayawati? or Deve Gowda for PM? He himself does not know. Fine job we will be doing electing a candidate whom we know for sure is never going to be a minister, and not even in the main opposition. This is an election between Advani and Manmohan. It makes sense to choose either Tharoor or the BJP cadidate(sorry dunno his name) or even Neelan cause he at least has a Mayawati to project. But not a Ramachandran Nair. Keralites have the unique knack of always choosing their MPs to sit in the opposition. Going by that logic Ramachandran Nair should win.

  23. Ambili March 30, 2009 at 10:31 am


    That was an awesome article..very balanced view..
    Anyways, I m hoping that tvmites would vote for Tharoor..not cos he writes brilliantly..not cos he has proved his administrative skills at a higher level. But I just think we should give a chance to a guy who seems to have a “global vision”! As was said in one of the comments, Ramchandran Nair would utmost be a Pannyan.. Not sure if Tharoor can “connect well” as well as his opponents..And I have this feeling that the “avg voter” mite vote for Nair ..cos its easy to call Tharoor a “bourgie” !!!

    Anways, waiting with crossed fingers for the drama to unfold.. Passing the msg to all whom i know (who by the way wont be part of the avg voter) to vote for Tharoor this time!!!

  24. BVN March 30, 2009 at 12:12 pm

    @ Nikhil, ecosystem? I think Tharoor is more of an anthurium than an aal maram 🙂

    @ Jacob, Can we compare ONV to A Charles(thats what I have done). Congress is the only party that has guts to put up someone like A Charles 🙂 . And why so much insecurity about politicians? 🙂 who are these ‘goons’ and college dropouts? Every single candidate in fray has atleast a degree. Neelan even has a PhD. And you said “I am really fed up with professional politions, who are in politics because they couldnt get anything else.”

    How about, they were in politics, so they couldn’t get anything else. Even a proper personal life. As you said, its a free country. One day we’ll create that happy apolitical heaven and have Ambani for PM 🙂

    you said “This is an election between Advani and Manmohan.” – It is not. It is an election between (Congress; BJP) way of progress and (Congress+Left) way.

    you said you don’t know the name of the BJP candidate – and I found that funny 🙂

  25. BVN March 30, 2009 at 12:50 pm

    @Scorpio, I agree to every bit of the argument that if Tharoor is serious, he should be given a chance. Thats exactly we are all so divided now – we have a great contest going on. But I maintain that This election is about TRIVANDRUM, and also about Congress, BJP, America, Palestine, Coca Cola, free-trade, and imperialism. The malayali voter is not a gold digger 🙂 we can have all this and still have Tharoor 🙂

    @Payyan, As Ajay points out Ramachandran Nair seems to forget what an MP is for, and is unable to think beyond the MP fund.

    @Ajay, I agree, except on the Left part. Then again, I have a control C problem as I mentioned about his vision. Plus, his vision needs to SELL – does he have a political movement that does that?

  26. BVN March 30, 2009 at 12:57 pm

    Ambili, Thank You 🙂
    do you go by the initials PJ?
    If we are not average voters, who are we. Above average or below average? 🙂

  27. Ninan March 30, 2009 at 2:00 pm


    Seriously I cannot emphatize with Sashi Tharoor’s vision.
    Please don’t get me wrong, I was thrilled by his vision when I read that first. The second time around I felt that his vision seems to be over the top( I am for dreams anytime).
    The third time around I understood that he has written a thrilling vision without even defining the first step of how to get there.

    Sashi Tharoor’s vision of tvm becoming a global city like London or Dubai is great. Pragmatically though it seems more fitting for a developed nation.

    Nair’s vision of having rest rooms for helpless beggars and people like that is too pragmatic.But as a person who has travelled at night in tvm, I have seen their hapless condition. One could argue that it has to be done by municipality but one has to agree that the problem exists.

    I would not want tvm to be a global city without taking care of the problems of these helpless guys. Does Sashi Tharoor know that such a problem exists?

    In short is he trying to create a solution without knowing the problem? You know the kind of project which starts with a great vision and plan and somewhere down the road surprises pops up.


  28. BVN March 30, 2009 at 2:41 pm

    Ninan, And to add on to that, I don’t see “Shashi Tharoor” anywhere in his vision. His vision is mostly (almost word by word) copy pasted from development blogs like and (see forums). If I can catch hold of something like that from Haryana, I could as well contest there 🙂

  29. scorpiogenius March 30, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    ^^ BVN, yeah perhaps Shashi Tharoor has gone through Ajay’s blog. Let it be his credit. Afterall if someone wants to know about how to see the positives of Tvm I feel Ajay’s site must become the bible.:)

    @ Ninan, Lets not forget that Tharoor has walked the corridors of United Nations, the organization at the forefront in fighting poverty. So the doubt about him knowing the existence of such problems is non-existent. I’d say Ramachandran Nair would be all at sea when coming to tackling the problem, but with Tharoor… I’d say he knows exactly what he is doing. 🙂

  30. scorpiogenius March 30, 2009 at 5:09 pm

    Adding on a tiny point… Fears about Tharoor taking a one-way ticket on IC-466 is rampant here in netscape..Why would he buy his own condominium in Sreekaryam then? Just for kicks??? 😉

  31. Jacob March 31, 2009 at 12:03 am

    Thank you BVN for being so civil in your disagreement, some of the words I used seem to be in bad taste, after all there are no drop outs and whatever else I said. Personaly I also prefer Trivandrum to be itself and not a Dubai or London. At least I can drive my Maruti 800 in peace and not be bullied by BMW’s, there are always two sides to an issue and maybe the Charleses and the Nairs are better.

  32. ambili March 31, 2009 at 3:08 am


    the initials are the same.. maranno? ore school yil padichavara 🙂

    and well, there is a typo..what i meant is the “avg” voter might not vote for avg i meant- ppl who actually vote.. not like many of us who do lot of discussions; but do not vote..

    hey..and i disagree with you on one thing..I dont think this election is a short-cut for him to be in the cabinet.. I guess he has enough influence amongst the congress top brass to get a rajya sabha seat and sneak into cabinet- if he wants..give the man credit! atleast, he is trying through proper channels..

    pinne..there is another reason why I want Tharoor to win..Vayalar Ravi, Vakkom pole ulla self-proclaimed genius kallude jada theerum!!! 🙂

    And abt Tharoor’s vision… see, he might have copied stuff from Ajay’s blog( but, atleast he did his research)..and the other criticism is he is not pragmatic… come on- lets give the guy a chance..he cannot be worse than Pannyan, Sivakumar, PKV, Charles..( I dont remember who was elected b4 that!)

  33. PRG March 31, 2009 at 4:12 am

    TVM people had enough tried with politicians who just make promises without any committment. Politicians lack vision and professional approach to get the things done. I think Shashi Tharoor is the best candidate TVM can have. why dont give him a chance to prove. Ramachandran Nair does’nt have any broad vision. He can be a good municipal councillor.Neelan doesn’t have clean image either. Also he has served as TVM MP earlier but he is not having any single project undertaken during his tenure. Dont think Krishnadas can gather as much votes as O.Rajagopal did.Also PDP factor may polarise hindu-christian votes towards Tharoor.

  34. Gauri March 31, 2009 at 6:02 am

    Hey BVN & Scorpio…btw wldnt mind getting reaaaaally close to him (im a sucker for gasbags with tax-free greenbucks). But – dont feel the same if ive to pay for him from my heavly taxed meger income rather than the other way ard. We look down on our local candidates overlooking the work they do…Do u thk he plans to stay in TVM and be avable to us? He’s secratary responds to mails from NY !!!

    Guess if he becomes MP we will surely see him smug face regulartly on TV as he jets around the world giving interviews on his world vision for 2050 but may have to convey our local issues to him thru NRI fly and frds !!

    TVM needs him as much as we need Italian Sonia to chalk our future. But Scopio has a point – Im also not for communist policies nor the communal bjp nor wish to have mayawati as my PM. SO what do I do? guess i’stay home on 15 May and watch PIX. Best of luck to all of them.

  35. Gauri March 31, 2009 at 6:07 am

    Hey BVN & Scorpio…btw wldnt mind getting reaaaaally close to him (im a sucker for gasbags with tax-free greenbucks). But – dont feel the same if ive to pay for him from my heavly taxed meger income rather than the other way ard. We look down on our local candidates overlooking the work they do…Do u thk he plans to stay in TVM and be avable to us? He’s secratary responds to mails from NY !!!

    Guess if he becomes MP we will surely see him smug face regulartly on TV as he jets around the world giving interviews on his world vision for 2050 but may have to convey our local issues to him thru NRI fly and frds !!

    TVM needs him as much as we need Italian Sonia to chalk our future. But Scopio has a point – Im also not for communist policies nor the communal bjp nor wish to have mayawati as my PM. SO what do I do? guess i’stay home on 16 April and watch PIX. Best of luck to all of them.

  36. Jugu March 31, 2009 at 11:28 pm

    Tharoor is arguably the finest candidate to contest the General Elections 09 among all contestants nationwide. Kerala and Trivandrum ought to be honored. If we don’t vote him to Parliament, it only proves Keralites are literate but not educated! However, I only wish Tharoor includes cleaning up and dredging of water-bodies in and around Trivandrum as a priority, if he gets elected. It will reduce disease and provide additional clean water.

  37. HARI April 1, 2009 at 10:39 am

    hi friends….i think its high time that people in trivandrum sense the need of the hour and send a person like tharoor to lok sabha….sending someone to the opposition benches will do no good either……

  38. Darsi April 2, 2009 at 3:45 am

    Tharoor shud be given a good job in foreign ministry.. as secretary general or something.. But not as minister.

    When a MP represants a constituency.. People in that constituency expect that he will be with them in every problems.

    5-6 years back, at nemam (in trivandrum), a youth was killed in lockup.. people blocked the road demanding probe against police, with the dead body. the situation became worse sothat, police were about to fire. An MLA came there and stood between the mob and police. Police could not do anything.. collector came and agreed to suspend the SI, and ordered a probe..

    Can Tharoor do this?

  39. Ninan April 3, 2009 at 2:45 am

    Hello All,

    Here is my analysis so far(Mostly from television and talking to people, news etc)

    LDF is well ahead in campaign. The rumour of CPM not supporting CPI does not seem true. Pinnarayi criticising Tharoor heavily will mean that all LDF votes will be polled for the LDF candidate. CPM may not work 100% since it is not their own candidate but this is normal in tvm because it is a CPI seat always.

    Tharoor will get most of the urban/youth/neutral votes. Will this happen? Remember that this is a 5 way contest and hence there is not that much neutral votes as compared to a 3 way contest with 2 strong candidates and 1 not so strong cadidate. This is the vote bank of Tharoor.Shiva kumar polled heavily last time even though he lost the elections.Most of those votes were a heavy win back from Rajgopal. This time Krishnadas will winback some of these and will poll more around 1 lakh – 1 lakh 10 thousand according to sources. Nevertheless Tharoor will get a section of the neutral votes with the strength of his bio-data.

    Neelan will cut in both LDF and UDF votes. To make an optimistic prediction for Tharoor 50% from both though it is more like 65 – 70% UDF votes.I say Neelan polls 75k votes.

    Congress workers not fully accepting for Tharoor. I am not sure how much this is true. There is a possiblity for this however it is hard to predict.Tharoor might loose votes because of his Israel stand/opinion about congress in his books.I hope this loss of votes will be compensated by the neutral votes.

    UDF through their good campaign has created the opinion that Tharoor is a good option.LDF through their good campaign has made their candidate a familiar face which was not the case when the campaign started.Ramachandran Nair to his credit has come across as a very affable, honest and capable person
    Tharoor to his credit has tried his best to connect to the kerala voters.

    I will not make a prediction based on the above statements because I am not completely sure about the statements above.
    Your comments?


  40. HARI April 3, 2009 at 11:02 am

    hi ninan sir…it will be surprise if the bjp candidate get 1 lakh plus votes…very minute chances of that, i think.bsp candidate will also get very low vote share bacause of his bad public image and a corrupt politician like mayawati will not be accepted by people of kerala. it will be a false statement to say that trivandrum is a cpi bastion….i think taroor is the most appropriate candidate to vote for .

  41. Jacob April 3, 2009 at 11:14 am

    The priority of the voter should be to select a candidate who can meet the aspirations of the youth of Thiruvananthapuram.

  42. Ninan April 3, 2009 at 1:32 pm

    Hello Hari and Jacob,

    My point above was not whom to vote for? My point was also not what the voter should look for in a candidate.It was a analysis of the current campaign situation.

    Rajgopal got 2.25 lac which was 3000 behind the UDF candidate. Last time the BJP candidate got 35000 votes or so which meant a bulk of the vote has gone to UDF.That is why I thought Krishnadas would get 1 lac vote

    I did not mean that tvm was cpi bastion. I meant that everytime CPM does not put in 100% in tvm since it is not a CPM candidate. In that sense CPM support is the same as last time.

    Neeelan will get Nadar votes from Kovalam etc.This is definitely not going to less than 50k. I would still say Neelan polls 75k.


  43. scorpiogenius April 3, 2009 at 3:37 pm

    @ Ninan, makes perfect sense, but have you considered the anti-incumbency factor? How much you think it is going to affect here? Or you opine that its not robust enough to pull away votes from the reds?

  44. Ninan April 3, 2009 at 4:47 pm


    Ofcourse The anti-incumbency factor will surely pull away votes from the LDF. I actually expected a BIG UDF WAVE in the beginning , but that seems to be missing.But as you said LDF will loose votes here. Thanks for pointing this out.

    All in all it make predictions difficult. My only observation at this point is that a local UDF candidate like V.S Shiva kumar would have made things extremely difficult for LDF. I am not comparing the capabilities of Shiva kumar with Tharoor , but from political situation and under-currents point of view

  45. Ahmed April 4, 2009 at 12:36 am

    Anti-gandhian attitude of Mr.Shashi Taroor

    Please read the anti-gandhian attitude of Mr.Shashi Tharoor as reflected in his article published in The Australian 19 Januuary 2009,25197,24929076-7583,00.html

    Please read the Gandhian views on the subject-

  46. arian hug April 4, 2009 at 1:53 am


    Shashi’s greatest problem is the Muslim vote. Congress should do something about it . Or else BJP should silently withdraw. Afterall there is no difference between shashis views and that of the BJP. I do not think NCP will get more than 6000 votes.Neelan will get about 35000. Shashi should win by less than 10000 votes because the INTELLIGENT TVM voter will not allow any one else to win.

  47. Darsi April 4, 2009 at 2:08 am

    Neelan shall get around 35k votes each from kovalam, neyyattinkara, parassala, nemam & vattiyoorkavu.. and another 25k from all others together.. last time when he competed as independant from kovalam, he got 27k and came second only because LDF candidate was from nadar community.. now he is only the nadar candidate.. more over this time, he has support from SC/ST communities also.

  48. PRG April 4, 2009 at 2:31 am

    I think Tharoor’s chance will diminish only if BJP+Neelan+NCP together will poll more than 2 lakh votes. In the present scenario it is highly unlikely.Krishnadas may gather max of 1.3 lakh votes and neelan around 50000.NCP may also poll around 15000.Here only speculation can be the BJP votes.Tharoor victory will depend upon the votes that BJP poll.Taking anti incumbancy factor too into account, my feeling is that Tharoor will win by a margin of around 15000 votes.

  49. Gauri April 4, 2009 at 6:48 am

    Tharoor’s leaving the debate halfway was quite shocking…cant remember seing such a thing befor! especailly when reply was being given for imp question. Pathetic. Darsi@ ive got reply for ur question, forget standing between a mob and police…i thk with this attiute he wld hv ordered the police to fire on the mob if he was MP.

  50. Jacob April 4, 2009 at 10:40 am

    INTELLIGENT TVM voter will not allow any one else to win. How many intelligent voters does Trivandrum have I wonder. If one expects Sashi to behave like the local poitician its not possible. Then again everything that a writer writes cannot be held against him. The author and his work are two different things. Even calling it the authors work is wrong. All good writers do not write, the story writes itself.

  51. HARI April 4, 2009 at 11:28 am

    hi…ninan sir…i think the extent of campaigning does not increase a candidate’s chances in a much greater way…still it may have some efects, as the socially aware voters like in kerala take decisions right when the candidates are anounced….wat do u think?

  52. scorpiogenius April 4, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    BVN BVN BVN… I’m not able to see any comments here.. Only the last two! 🙁

  53. admin April 4, 2009 at 11:09 pm

    Scorpio, I guess this new template pages into 25 comments (so 3 pages)

  54. scorpiogenius April 5, 2009 at 2:58 pm

    yeah, but what I was getting when i click [1] or [older comments] is —> “Not found- you are looking for something which isnt there” 🙁

  55. admin April 5, 2009 at 10:24 pm

    @Scorpio, athu sheriyayennu thonunnu. I made it 100 comments per page.

  56. Gauri April 6, 2009 at 3:36 am

    @Arian – I totally disacgree that Tharors view are same as BJP. Guess you have missed some of his articles in support of MF Hussains nude paintings – u can chk some decent ones site and u seem to have missed the hate mail he got for it.

    Just as I would not support the distruction of Babri masjid, I do not support MF Hussain’s nude painting of goddesses. These are symbols of identity and one need not be religious to be hurt if these are harmed in any way.

    Tharoor’s lack of understanding of pyscology, I think he is better suited to just run PR classes instead of entering politics. While I appreciate his abilities, he is not leader material.

  57. arian hug April 6, 2009 at 7:50 am

    Please, dont compare what Neelan got when he stood previous times. Now he has lost that image, you know the reasons. but however his BSP ticket is definitely going to fetch him some votes. so all to gether BSP+BJP+NCP will get about 1.25-1.5 lakh votes. Shashi will win may be by about 10000 votes.

  58. Ninan April 6, 2009 at 10:08 am

    Hi Arian hug,

    That is one hell of a prediction. Tvm has approx ~11 lakh votes. I would assume 7 – 8 lakh votes polled.
    Making a prediction of 10000 lead in 8 lakh votes means you have done a lot of analysis. That is great.

    One thing though. Earlier everyone was predicting a thumping victory for UDF which no one does any more. I guess reality is sinking in that Tharoor is not going to pull the neutral votes like Rajgopal earlier. With Rajgopal there was no question of connecting with the people, He is from trivandrum and the campaign BJP did for him was awesome. It was a kind of ‘Do or Die’ try.

    @Hari – To answer your question , Yes I think campaign will play a great role in deciding the end result.By campaign i don’t mean posters and flex boards, but really door-to-door squad methodic campaign with voters list.

    I think things are looking grim for Tharoor.
    My prediction is that LDF will win in the current scenario.
    If Tharoor does not get neutral votes as predicted( there is a real chance for this ) LDF will win with a good majority.

    Again.My answers above is not an indication on who should win, but my analysis of the present situtaion.

    To answer this blog( caption of the blog )
    YES. Sashi Tharoor can and will loose in trivandrum.


  59. BVN April 6, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    @Arian Hug, 🙂 seriously man. How did you reach those numbers. I guess any Intelligent TVM voter will want to know 🙂 The closest I came was Shashi losing by 16,537 votes. chumma fun 🙂

  60. Jacob April 6, 2009 at 9:49 pm

    Who is going to vote for NCP and for what? Neelans figures are exaggerated. Some fringe BJP votes will go to Sashi, because knowing that BJP cannot win, their next choice will be Tharoor over Nair. We will be back here after the results are announced, and reexamine our predictions and predicaments Lol.

  61. arain hug April 6, 2009 at 11:26 pm

    I totally agree he is little weak in Psychology. But then how did he write all those stuff.I think political psychology is different. About my calculations on winning margins, communists are bend upon defeating shashi,and they are too good in booth level squad work which ensures that on the polling day their voters who have not polled are brought from wherever they are and made to vote . At each booth they have that list of communist voters. Where as SHASHIS squad is only interested in standing next to him. They are not motivated. But however if polling percentage is more than 68% then shashi will win by a narrow margin.Assuming that BJP+NCP+NEELAN will not get more than 1.5 lakh votes the rest is about 5.9 lakhs if polling %is 68. AND communists cannot get more than 2.9 lakhs. that is their My calculations are based on this presumptions. IF polling % decreases then it affects SHASHI.the net difference % on absolute level will then get divided on a 60:40 basis.that is say if polling % is 60%, since each % about 11000 votes the net absolute is 11000×8(68-60)=88000. now this will get divided as approx 52000 for communists and 36000 for shashi. (60:40).in that case communists will win by 6000 votes as at 68% my calculation is 10000 lead for shashi.ABOVE 68% the division of votes will reverse that is 70 for shashi and 30 for CPM.So if it is 80% then shashi will win by around 50000 let us see how it fares.

  62. Avittam Thirunal Nair(ATN) April 7, 2009 at 1:48 pm

    And worst of all these is that Look at sashi Taroor’s history – He is a complete misfit. One cannot have a more apolitical man than him. And thats a dangerous character for an MP.

  63. PRG April 8, 2009 at 1:32 am

    Without any doubt it can be stated that Tharoor is the front runner. His stature and competance will fetch him lot of neutral votes esp that of the younger generation, wemen and students. O.Rajagopal got 2.25 lakh votes only becoz he was considered as a winning candidate. BJP will get only half of that votes this time and the same will benefit Tharoor.It is a known fact that the LDF has not increased their support base in TVM. Also this time the general trend is in favour of UDF.I dont think the well educated TVM people will waste this oppertunity to elect an MP with a rare calibre like that of Mr.Tharoor.I totally disagree that Shashi Tharoor can lose in TVM.

  64. Ajay April 8, 2009 at 8:17 am

    I spent about 20 minutes with Tharoor today in his car, discussing some of the issues regarding the development of Trivandrum. A brief meeting at best, but the impression he left that he is like you and me, someone who is firmly a part of the New India that has been surging over the last 10 years, professional attitude, Blackberry et al. He is slightly disillusioned by the fact that public service has little to do with politics today but he seemed to be in the fight for the long haul. However, as many of us have mentioned here and elsewhere, the party machinery does not seem to going full steam yet, or anywhere close to it.

    Sonia Gandhi’s visit today may instill some urgency into the Congress, I hope it does. Else, I have a sneaky suspicion that he may end up a lone rider. My bet on him is still on, although with each day of strong campaigning by the LDF, the odds are getting worse.

    If the Congress votes don’t mysteriously vanish or land up elsewhere and there is a turnout of at least 70%, my prediction still holds. 🙂

  65. Ajay April 8, 2009 at 8:34 am

    A lot of people have told me that Dr. Tharoor’s vision has an uncanny resemblance to some of the stuff that I have written over the past three years or so. Lol, I didn’t write it for him!

    Most of those things are what anyone who takes a long term view on the development of Trivandrum will want to happen, be it you, me or Tharoor. So I am sure it is just a happy co-incidence.

    And to everybody who thinks that direct action is the only way to alleviate poverty and suffering, let me ask how well the tens of thousands poured into “poverty eradication programmes” have fared? I am reminded of an R.K. Laxman cartoon, where a Minister is proudly proclaiming that he is “abolishing Poverty on Wednesday and ending Hunger on Thurday!” Instead, the only sure-fire way of improving the socio-economic condition of the community is to bring in development. The regional economy has to receive fresh investment so as to generate direct and indirect employment and create sustainable income flows. For such a change what we need are knowledge industries and world-class infrastructure and not public comfort stations and more Government offices! Thus, Dr. Tharoor’s vision is perhaps the correct sustainable strategy to improve the lot of all sections of the population.

  66. Ninan April 8, 2009 at 9:50 am


    Thats interesting. I hope you had a good time with Mr.Tharoor.

    I am one of the guys who still does not have confidence in Tharoor.But I am not going to discuss that now. I have more confidence in you than Tharoor after reading your blogs
    :-)).Will discuss that an other time.

    There will be good polling this time because this is a 4 way contest. 70% polling will be normal and happened the last 2 times as well. If polling is quite high like 80% may be it will become advantageous for Tharoor.


  67. scorpiogenius April 9, 2009 at 3:42 am

    I spent about 20 minutes with Tharoor today in his car, discussing some of the issues regarding the development of Trivandrum

    WOW Ajay! You de man!!

    LDF activists have always been live wires in campaigning, so there is nothing much alarming in it. I remember the same story during the Kaniyapuram X Sivakumar battle, where everyone, including Congress activists, thought that Sivakumar would lose. What happened is history.

    Ninan, 80% turnout for Lok Sabha elections, especially in Tvm…. seems highly improbable. I’d say 68-70% will be good enough for the coconut to steady itself on the wall 🙂

  68. santhosh April 9, 2009 at 5:21 am

    The important thing is before the election tvm (also kerala) heard sashi taroor in media only. After the election,even if he win or not we never ever find him in trivandrum…Am sure even if he failed the election the Dollman – Manmohanji make him finance minister…
    How many people agree with this….

  69. arain hug April 9, 2009 at 9:49 am


    I took time , went to TVM for 2 days to find out what is the ground situation.

    1. + points. Lot of this younger folk is getting around him , so keen to touch him , and even oldies also want to be near to him and all that celebrity stuff wherever he is visiting.
    2.Neelan is not what generally people thought. He is really getting lot of votes. One wont be surprised if he gets any where near to 1 lakh. These votes are generally going to be from communist vote bank.
    3. BJP and NCP are not very serious.

    now, the negative points.
    4. Shashi’s war room boys are not fit. They are not able to integrate with the local outfits. Very sad state.
    5. Shashi himself is not try his mobile. give a voice message . he doesn’t respond. He should have moved around with Mr Oommen Chandy for at least a day.If he is like this right at this stage , what will he be if he wins?


    Personally Iam keen he wins. Some one advice him please….


  70. Ninan April 9, 2009 at 1:12 pm

    @Arian Hug

    This not good news. I am afraid my predictions are coming true.

    Do you think the celebrity stuff will convert into votes? You might be able to better comment since you have see him in action.

    It also looks like his war room does not consist of local congress cadres. This means that his campaign is not in a good shape

    I am know some one in his campaign team.Infact a friend of a friend of mine who joined his campaign team and mostly the videos you see on the net are made by him.I will try to contact him as soon as I hear from you


  71. Nair tea stall April 9, 2009 at 3:18 pm

    Hello BVN,

    Excellent unbiased write up. The idol worship for Tharoor does want to make me throw up as well. I have referred your blog on my blog where i am making an amateurish attempt at calling this election. Would love your as well everyone else’s comments.

  72. Gauri April 10, 2009 at 5:17 am

    @arian why r u supprised he is unaccessable ? it is obvious the way he rejects interacting with people on the ground..he prefers mixing only with elite and that also on his this what being MP is supposed to be? TVM is jst a ticket for perks and high profile job for him…pls see – he will lose – only few elite christian and NRI votes will go to him…people can see thru the play acting he’s currently doing of being a local keralite in mundu’s. if Indians were so stupid, Sonia or Rahul baba would be our PM !! Tharoor was comunicating the UN policies – not formulating them….and i fear if he actually in a position to do so for us. He has foot in the mouth disease and his own thinking is visible in the crazy comments he airs – be it on women or regilion or politics.

  73. Avittam Thirunal Nair April 10, 2009 at 12:18 pm

    Oh My God ! What apolitical bloggers. I for one will not choose Shashi Tharoor and pray that he loose for the simple fact that he himself does not believe in doing anything for the State. he has always been doing things for himself and the “world” and he is best at that. Even if you all vote for him, do so with the full understanding that he will just go away to where he belongs – fly like an eagle and only perch in your constituency when he is tired of preying up there !!

    I agree with Gauri

  74. Ajay April 10, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    I do not understand why a lot of people here are so rabidly anti-Tharoor, without any particular reason to be so. For one, I did not pull any strings to meet him, I just got in touch with his team through his website and fixed up an appointment. The invitation to travel with him was quite spontaneous. So, I don’t believe he is inaccessible. And let me ask everyone, how accessible have previous MPs been?

    And what reason do we have to believe that he will follow in the footsteps of other Lok Sabha-bound characters whose next visit to their constituencies is when their terms are set to run out? The very fact that he has no political background leaves some hope that this man will be different than all the rest.

    I also understand the reason that Dr Tharoor rejected an offer of a Rajya Sabha seat was that he wanted the kind of interaction with the people that only a directly elected Lok Sabha MP can have. I have a lot of hope in a man who rejected a sure-shot offer for a hard fight.

    Some of you may be right and I may be wrong, but I would rather take a chance that I may be right about Tharoor than be wrong about the others.

  75. Ninan April 10, 2009 at 2:09 pm


    Which Rajya Sabha seat was offered to him. There are veterans like Manmohan singh, Antony , Vayalar Ravi etc standing in line for next Rajya Sabha seat.

    You remember the last Rajya Sabha seat which Chennithala, Mani etc wanted but finally Vayalar Ravi got. Did you hear Tharoor’s name mentioned there anywhere?

    It is just a rumuor spread by Tharoor and his team that he rejected Rajya Sabha seat. I am sorry I do not believe that even though the information might have come to you from Tharoor himself. I believe you completely but not Tharoor

    He got the loksabha seat because he BOUGHT IT!!!!
    Its as simple as that!!!


  76. Ajay April 10, 2009 at 2:40 pm

    @ Ninan – So who do you believe then? Any particular reason not to believe Dr. Tharoor? I mean just because he looks too good to be true does not mean he is to disbelieved.

    And BTW, I heard the Rajya Sabha seat thing from a senior Congress leader, at an election interaction. Dr. Tharoor said no such thing although he did say that he wanted to understand what the people of Trivandrum really need and aspire for.

    I still cannot understand why Tharoor would “buy” the seat. To become a Union Minister? Lots of less qualified gentlemen have bought Rajya Sabha seats far more easily, it is after all the safe option of getting a Cabinet berth. And if the insinuation is that the seat is being bought to pay the way for unnamed capitalist cronies, all the more better. At least, a candidate will do some economic good for his constituency, beyond the free deal of his MP fund.

    And let me assure all of you of one thing, I am no Congress campaign agent or idol worshiper. It is just that I see at least a few reasons why Tharoor should be elected from Trivandrum and none for the alternatives. This is after all a logical choice. There has been so much said against Tharoor’s candidature, what can be said in favour of his opponents because the option of abstention is a totally irresponsible one.

  77. Ninan April 10, 2009 at 3:48 pm

    Ofcourse..Without your mentioning it everyone who reads your posts will not even think for a moment that you are a congress campaign agent :-)). Sorry if my earlier post was too critical.

    To answer your comments

    Well then why did Tharoor not take the Rajya Sabha seat? I mean he can do a lot of good for trivandrum even if he is a Rajyasabha M.P isn’t it?

    Are you asking me to believe that he suddenly got a calling (ullvilli in malayalam ) to strive for the good of people of trivandrum or that he thought this will be a good chance to improve his malayalam or Did he think that he can use the campaign stage to know trivandrum better?

    I don’t believe the news that he was offered a Rajya Sabha seat because it was reported only after his nomination was announced. That is a bit too good to be true.I am naive but not that naive.Please don’t ask me to believe the following scene

    Sonia says:

    ‘M.R Tharoor , We have Rajya Sabha seat coming up? Please take this and become a cabinet minister and serve India

    Tharoor says :

    Nahin Soniaji Nahin. Mujhe ee free Rajya sabha seat nahin chahiye. Main ladke loksabha seat jeetke aaoonga.Aaa cabinet ministry thayar rahiye..

    Kavil amme Shakthi tharoo..Evide nomination form?

    Please let me know how Tharoor will get a seat without buying it. I can understand if Tharoor landed in trivandrum 6 months before the election and then travelled across trivandrum talking to people, understand the issues, studying the problem etc:


    How am I to believe that he will do good for trivandrum because he was one of the 58 under-secretaries in UN and he has wrote 2 or 3 books.Does this qualify him to be M.P.

    I also don’t have the feeling that the other candidates pale in comparison to Tharoor. It will depend on how you look at it.So that is definitely not a reason for voting for Tharoor.There are better alternatives in the candidate list.Tell me this if people are supposed to contact Tharoor should they buy a blackberry. V.S Shivakumar was atleast approachable.

    Tharoor says in every speach that ‘Trivandrum-tinte shabdam njan delhi-yil kelpikuum’. What will he do? Will he use a loud speaker?

    He say he will turn trivandrum to a global city. How will he do this? Am I supposed to believe this because he is Sashi Tharoor…Da Man..?

  78. Ajay April 10, 2009 at 11:26 pm

    @ Ninan – Lol, since you claim he “bought” a Lok Sabha seat instead of a cushy one in the Rajya Sabha, it is up to you to explain why Dr. Tharoor took that route, isn’t it?

    Dr. Tharoor was in Trivandrum a long time before the election. I have seen him on different occasions here, mostly at cultural functions and his AABC institute has been running in Technopark for over a year now. For that matter, how long has Krishnadas been in Trivandrum?

    What qualifies a candidate for the post of MP? Having slugged it out in politics for 30 years or having a minimum two-page long criminal record? I would think a strong educational background, experience in development economics, statesmanship et al are not that bad in terms of qualifications.

    And in terms of approachability, let me assure you that I have tried to interact with many politicians and it is a factor of their interest than anything else. What good have Shivakumar or any of the other MPs in the recent past done Trivandrum. Precious little, if any.

    I remember that it took us most of our meeting with one of the worthies who then represented Trivandrum to explain the basic concepts of how developments like Technopark and not Government offices could help Trivandrum more. When we went to meet another MP (or rather ex-MP at the time)to seek support for the Vizhinja, he dismissed us saying “let’s wait till Vallarpadam is finished, then we will think of Vizhinjam”. I am sure that at the very least, Tharoor already understands these nuances.

    And if there is nothing more to detract from his candidature than the facts that he is well-off, internationally experienced and well educated, I don’t see anything at all to think twice about my original PoV.


  79. arain hug April 11, 2009 at 5:39 am

    hi all,

    1.Every party tries to assess how much you can spent for electioneering from your pocket. It is quite possible Shashi gave the highest bid.
    2. Shashi was never offered a RAJYA SABHA seat.
    3. Local Congress guys offered him Palaghat. Truth is he declined it. He was only interested in TVM.
    4.More than anything else he must be well connected.And hence he got the seat.
    5.His mobile number is 9995633633.If any one of you can ever contact him , you can be rest assured he will win. I bet , you will never be able to get him to speak. and if you get him please tell him that he is horribly in accessible. SO, for a person who is not accessible if he wins it is just plain luck, that NEELAN is eating away the COMMUNIST votes.See, there is around 270000 congress votes.
    6. But I refuse to believe if he can ever win by more than 10000 votes.
    7. let me tell you , I still want him to win because he is better than many others in the fray in KERALA.

  80. Gauri April 11, 2009 at 6:53 am

    Tharoor did get the ticket being the highest bidder, thanks to COKE and ISRAILE. That miser will not spend any of his greenbucks!1 AND his fly connections with Anthony and his good pal in our defence ministry + Being friends with our dear PM’s daughters helps. What does Tharoor want? 3 P’s – PERKS, POSITION & POWER. He failed to get it at UN, so he quit.

    @Ajay, good for u he took ur call, maybe it was in kind payment for the copy paste and intilectual palagarism he did from ur website. That is common with writers..if payment is good for an article contribution thats the easiest to do when one has nither the time nor interest to reflect and write on the topic. I have made up my mind..I will go and vote for R Nair. VOTE FOR THE PERSON AND WHETHER HE IS LIKELY TO DO WHAT HE HAS PROMISED. He is atleast available and we can hold him to his promises atleast.

  81. arain hug April 11, 2009 at 9:18 am


    Please dont be senty. take your time. decide on 16th.

  82. Ninan April 11, 2009 at 9:47 am

    I will also cast my vote for Ramachandran Nair for the precise reason Gauri gave.

    I don’t believe Tharoor can or want to do anything for trivandrum.

    @Arian Hug – Neelan will eat away both LDF and UDF votes. Krishna das will also eat into UDF votes.

    Based on the last legistlative assembly elections , in trivandrum constituency there are 270000 UDF and 314000 LDF votes. Ofcourse the numbers from legistlative assembly cannot be used for loksabha elections.

    I don’t think Tharoor will get all the UDF votes( congress + Muslim league ). Muslim League for his dubious stand on Israel and congress votes because he has not endeared himself to the local congress workers.

    LDF will surely win this seat. My vote is for Ramachandran nair. I have waited for the last 10 days for Tharoor to convince me and get my vote. But I only see someone who is waiting for Apr 16’th to catch his flight back.

    I don’t see any reason why Tharoor should be given a chance now. I started with the opposite view and I am sure there are many like me.

  83. PRG April 11, 2009 at 12:45 pm

    I dont accept that Tharoor will be unccessable once he wins. An MP’s main job is in Delhi, laisoning with the govermnent and administration to get the things done for the people.Most of our MPS and MLAs think that attending marriages and other ceremonies will enhance their image as accessable to all.In my opinion ans MP needs only an office in his Constituency for dealing with the general public. I support Tharoor for his merit and efficiency for which he is far ahead of Mr. Ramachandran Nair. Krishnadas is not a winnable candiadte eventhough his credentials are good. In the present scenario it seems that Tharoor will win if there is no big undercurrent.

  84. naran April 11, 2009 at 11:06 pm

    Yes. I think that Sasi Tharoor is going to lose this time.

    I lives in middle of city & watching all campaigne here.

    I never saw such an inactive mood of congress workers in a election.
    Congress didnot even formed the booth level committees here.

    When I asked one of my friends, who is a strong congress worker, “why he is not active ” ,his reply surprised me.

    “he is delhi’s candidate , so let Delhi people come to work for him”
    Last time I sasw the same man running sleepless for campaigneing for Shiva Kumar.
    It is very sad that Sashi Tharoor will not get even Congress votes.

    He will be lucky, if landed in second position.

  85. Naga April 11, 2009 at 11:54 pm

    Shashi Tharoor’s candidature is bound to generate so much of interest and quite understandably so, a fervent fan following amongst the netizens and much

    beyond. Not the least SURPRISING.

    However, this is my take.

    1. The not so SURPRISING part
    Shashi Tharoor might be a good individual or otherwise; I do not know. But what I know for sure and I concur with you is that he is so eloquent in prose and

    the likes of one Ms Roy should take a note of the fact that one can be subtle and still create an equal or more impact. Brahma, you have referred to his

    fictional and non-fictional feats. However his stylised accounts of independence struggle and post-independent India are more a gift of the gab neatly

    intertwined with fine elements of story-telling and less of a ‘Guha’esque research masterpiece.

    I am more familiar with him through his regular columns in the ToI (his attempt at capturing India alphabetically again was a stylised effort) and the Hindu.

    The opinions exhibited in most of articles are those of mine as well and I have often wondered that how he could so brilliantly capture some of the ideas

    that I fervently hold on to – secularism for one.

    2. The SURPRISING part
    Shashi Tharoor represents the Congress party. Aah, that’s my problem. History gives us mixed signals; the pros claim their independent struggle antecedents whereas the cons their Sikh pogrom. So let’s keep history aside for the time being. Let’s concentrate on the present; on the here and now. Congress is going it alone in the Hindi heartland. I don’t know much about their travails in UP (outside of Rae Bareilly and Amethi) but of Bihar I do.

    Every ‘bahubali'(remember Omkara) worth their salt has been given a ticket in equal presence by all the parties, whether it is the JD (U)-BJP combine, the LJP/RJD front or the Congress. Only the United Left Block (ULB) is spared and you can always bet your money for that. But for a seat or two they are hardly serious contenders anyway. And where the famed ‘bahubali’ is barred from contesting by the long arm of the law, their wives are in the fray!!! Munna Shukla in JD (U), Suraj Bhan Singh’s wife in LJP, Mohd. Shahabuddin’s wife in RJD to name a few.

    But wait, take a look at the Congress.

    Sadhu Yadav (brother of Rabri Devi) failed to secure a ticket from the RJD and hence moved to Congress and is contesting from Bettiah.
    Pappu Yadav (sitting Madhepura MP) can’t contest this time thanks to the law again. His mother is the Congress candidate from the place, his wife, Ranjita Ranjan (sitting LJP Supaul MP) is contesting from the Congress this time.

    It is like this; during the days when I was doing my Engg from CET, the city president of the Shiv Sena was the guy whom even the BJP felt was too vicious in his interpretation of the Holy Bhagvad Gita and hence were embarassed in having, while the former gleefully accepted in its fold.

    This is the state of the Congress here. And it is for this Congress that Shahsi Tharoor a candidate. Oh spare me the thought of even toying the idea of voting for this Congress.

    Now what is the left broadly accused of nowadays.

    1. The NSS and the Church is up in arms against the left.
    Do we ask why? It is because the left believes that Higher Education cannot and shouldnot be prohibitively costly.
    If in fighting for this cause we lose 20 of the 20 seats in Kerala, so be it. We shall go down fighting.
    But what is wrong is wrong. ‘Netri kann thurappinum kuttram kuttrame’ said a line from a famous Tamil movie of yesteryears.
    Now what is Shashi Tharoor’s view on this. He wouldn’t even know that this situation exists.

    2. For being historically on the wrong side of epochal decisions – PM at Kochi.
    Oh if we were on the right side, by now the financial crisis would have gobbled us all up.

    The left stood up; stood up against the current.

    Think, Decide.

  86. arain hug April 12, 2009 at 12:23 am


    1.Every one is entitled to his/ her views.Democracy is afterall all about my right to differ with you , hence I will defend your right to differ with me , even to my last breath.
    2.Your opinion on CHURCH and NSS is myopic. Also have you bothered to at least understand what SUPREME COURT said about the rights of Minority Community to run their institutions.
    3. After having read your views Iam getting convinced SHASHI should win. I was all the while thinking if I should support SHASHI . Now Iam convinced , I should support him to keep the democracy in tact, to keep fascism out, to defend my right to differ with you , to get the VIJHINGAM project moving, to make TVM a beautiful INTERNATIONAL CITY. MY vote is for SHASHI. If he wins I will feel thrilled. If he loses he will right a GOOD BOOK on Indian Elections, and I will buy it and read it . great…………

  87. manmadhan April 12, 2009 at 3:07 am

    Shashi Tharror is determined to win from trivandrum.. all u guys wait for the may 16 th results !!!!

  88. We need Tharoor's win April 12, 2009 at 9:43 am

    Tharoor,has vast knowledge and enough influence in the world to present the problems of different kinds of people without partiality.

    So bring Trivandrum as a hitech city and as a minister he will raise the problems of minorities and poverty and do the best for the nation rather than from a local perspective.
    “Vote for Congress”.

  89. Mallu April 12, 2009 at 11:39 am

    It is the luck of Trivandrum that you got such a highly qualified statesman as your candidate. I wish that he should win and it will help not only tvm by all keralites. I have no hope in our senior citizens but I have hope in our young generation,I am sure they will vote for Mr. Tharoor

  90. Gauri April 13, 2009 at 12:56 am

    @Shibu – Wonder why we shd vote for Congress, when the princess has already declared that while Dr.Manmohan may or may not be the next PM, Rahul baba will surely be PM. So we know who we will be voting for on NATIONAL basis if we vote for congress. AND we dont think too highly of Yuvraj’s abilities as PM. So I suggest, we dont vote for bootlickers & vote with local perspective for R Nair. Gone are the days of national parties – lets be vocal and active in local politics. Lets stop asking for stikes and improve productivity – and lets get the left to increase its focus on local developement if they want to survive in the state.

  91. Vrinda Pillai April 13, 2009 at 1:17 am

    Neelan the BSP candidate wins for a margin of 50000 votes!!!

  92. Darsi April 13, 2009 at 2:22 am

    @ Naran
    I wonder why congress workers are not active, even when tharoor gives 350rs + food + a ‘paint bottle’ per head. May be he is spending 5 times the salary he may get it in next five years.

  93. Ninan April 13, 2009 at 4:04 am


    This forum has changed from ‘An unbiased campaign analysis’ to ‘Whom will we vote for and support’.I am also at fault here.

    What about going back to the orginal topic.
    A couple of key points regarding Trivandrum constituency.

    1)There might be an anti-LDF wave( not really visible) in other places but in trivandrum it has been nullified by the 5 way contest or at the minimum the effect of it will be less for LDF because anti-LDF votes will be shared by Tharoor, Neelan and Krishnadas as opposed to a direct benefit for the UDF candidate in a 2 way fight.

    2)RSS is working full time for Krishandas and hence a undercurrent of RSS votes going to UDF has very little chance of materialising.

    3)CPM is completely active in LDF campaign and a advantage for UDF based on in-fighting in LDF will not happen.

    4)Neelan factor remains totally uncertain.He will cut into both LDF and UDF votes but the extend is unknown.I would still say 60 – 40 with UDF getting hit the worst.

    5)Tharoor is using some new methods of campaigning like using internet to the maximum, employing bloggers etc. The effect of this cannot be predicted because there is no precedence

    6)District level congress workers are still not active in Tharoor’s campaign and this might mean that he might loose the traditional UDF votes.

    7)How much neutral votes will Tharoor get? I would assume he will get neutral votes based on his bio-data but will also loose neutral votes because he is an outsider.

    Based on the above , I would still stand in my prediction that Tharoor will loose in Trivandrum.

    I will not argue again about whom I am going to vote in this forum because it takes the discussion into different emotional route and I enjoy the realistic analysis here too much.

  94. Mallu April 13, 2009 at 11:21 am

    Abe Ninan, We all came to know that you are going to VOTE for LDF, (Least Developed Force). You talked about Congress dist workers, what about Janata dal in TVM where there vote will go ?. Come out of your narrow thought and send a scholar to the Parliament, that will be the best thing you can do for India or do or die with the P company (Pinarayi Compnay)

  95. Ninan April 13, 2009 at 12:48 pm

    Hello Mallu,

    Ofcourse I already told that I will be voting for Ramachandran Nair. I also told that it was my analysis above and invited you to criticise it.

    I agree to your comment. I should not have missed it. Janata Dal votes will be split between UDF, Neelan and LDF. There is faction within Janta dal who is working for LDF. Lets assume that this is a weak faction and hence Janata dal votes will be split 20% to LDF and 40% for UDF and Neelan.I would say janata dal has 5000 votes in tvm. Now you crunch the numbers.

    My comments about Congress dist workers is my analysis of the situation and not against UDF as such

    What is this comment about asking me to join P company???

    Why should I send a scholar to parliament?If you are thinking about Tharoor and you think Tharoor is a scholar then please refer to him as a spineless scholar. Because he seems to forget what he wrote and seems that he is licking the boots of whomever he wrote against.

  96. HARI April 13, 2009 at 12:56 pm

    hello….ninanji….u r going to make a great mistake by voting for LDF….but its your right,you can do what you feel right.Actually there is no need to fague ur brain thinking of the vote share the different candidates r going to get.Shashi tharoor will be the MP from trivandrum,no doubt.

  97. scorpiogenius April 13, 2009 at 1:38 pm

    Tharoor is using some new methods of campaigning like using internet to the maximum, employing bloggers etc. The effect of this cannot be predicted because there is no precedence

    WOW! Ninanji, you’re awesome! could you please brief us more on this? Being acquainted to a few well known bloggers campaigning for Tharoor, I would like to know more about how much is the going rate for all these.. 😉

    Employing bloggers, ah what tall tale! You’re a funny man!

    Blogs doesn’t penetrate even into half a percent of Trivandrum’s population. So if Tharoor is ’employing’ bloggers to evangelize him, then ‘MORONIC’ would be the best adjective to describe it. We may have to wait a decade at least to advance into such campaigning modalities. 🙂

  98. Ninan April 13, 2009 at 1:55 pm


    May be ‘No doubt’ for people like you who would rather like to say their wish than facts. You are most welcome to argue against my points.

    or may be you got your facts from ‘Attuakal Radhakrishnan’ , the astrologer.

    Sashi Tharoor might get a Rajya Sabha seat later and become the MP but in Loksabha 2009 election he will loose comfortably.This is my analysis based on the points above

  99. Ninan April 13, 2009 at 3:09 pm


    I did not mean that every blogger supporting Tharoor is paid by him. So apologies if you felt I was insulting your friends.

    Yes..I am a funny man..I am glad I could make you laugh!!!
    Thats all I can say.

    As you said camapigning through blogs is MORONIC which should also mean that those few well blogger friends of yours are Morons :-))
    You are also not so bad. You can be funny too..

    The fact remains that Tharoor has a professional team managing his campaign and they are using internet blogs as a campaign tool. Infact there are some blogs where you will see replies from Tharoor’s campaign team ( his secratary infact) who is based in newyork. His agency has employeed bloggers( may be wrong word, may be I should have said people who are paid to create a boom for Tharoor in internet ).

    May be for you it looks Moronic , but what if his campaign team thinks that he can influence internet aware votes this way.

    Tharoor is advertising in websites like Keralkaumudi, malayala manorama etc. Banner ads. What would you call this?
    ‘Moronic’ or ‘My imganination’? I hope you would have seen this already. If he gives advertisement in websites what should stop him from employing people to answer to anti-Tharoor postings in blogs.How much votes will this internet banner ads bring??

    This is what I said that Tharoor is using new methods of campaigning.

    Tell me this

    Why is none of the other UDF candidates putting banner ads in websites??
    Ideally the campaign techniques of all UDF candidates should be the same or is it that UDF decided that only trivandrum has internet aware votes. This is what I was indicating that Tharoor has a agency who is acting as a war-room for his campaign and this is also keeping the common congress workers away.

    Come on guys. I am not accusing anyone with out any proof.

    Tell me this honestly!!!!
    How many of you guys say that Tharoor’s campaign has district UDF and local workers involvement.Compare his campaign with Sivakumar’s last time. you will understand the difference.

  100. scorpiogenius April 13, 2009 at 5:23 pm

    Right Ninan saab, even stevens!

    By the way, did I say campaigning through blogs is ‘moronic’??? The barrel was pointed at the idea of ’employment of bloggers’. Stop.

    Yeah, websites of Manorama, Keralakaumudi and co appears good sites for campaign, and is interesting as a new medium of campaign, but those websites mustn’t be compared to our humble blogsites which hardly receives around a gross clicks a day (I’m not talking about BVN Diaries here 🙂 ). So for blogs, websites and co to become important and decisive media of campaigning in our state, we may perhaps need to wait another decade.

    PS: This reply is actually just a rewording of my previous reply, if you hadn’t already noticed.

  101. BVN April 13, 2009 at 9:03 pm

    Vishu Wishes!
    rhymes 🙂

    Guys the funniest thing on GROUND is MP Gangadharan’s campaign. It’s like some comedy movie where full-time drunkards and daily wage workers run a shoddy campaign for arguably the most politician looking man on earth 🙂

  102. Bharath April 13, 2009 at 10:36 pm

    We are indeed lucky that one among the most eligible candidate of elc 2009 is contesting from trivandrum. forget abt the party and think about the capabilities and the persona of the man. It is sad that people are having double thoughts abt his candidature from trivandrum. Let he contest from any party , still i will vote for him. Vizhinjam port is an election issue for the past 20 Yrs. Nothing moved. I think that a person of his calibre and a person who held such prestigeous appointmens can do nothing wrong. forget abt TVM think what he can do when he hold an appointment. Plz Plz Plz vote for him.

  103. PRG April 14, 2009 at 3:17 am

    wishu wishes to all

    I can not agree with Ninan.
    Points in favour of Tharoor

    1.As I said earlier, Mr. Tharoor’s chances will diminish only if BJP polls more than 2 lakh votes.That is unlikely coz Krishnadas is not considered as a winnable candidate.
    2. Neelan’s voteshare will affect both LDF and UDF but he will eat more LDF votes coz traditionally his voters are from LDF.
    3.NCP impact will be marginal
    4.General trend in favour of UDF and expected vote shift from LDF to UDF.(Expected is 5% shift from LDF to UDF).BJP will not benefit here
    5.Tharoor’s high profile stature and chance of getting a cabinet birth.
    6.His wide acceptability with neutral voters esp students and youg generation.
    7. His main opponent Mr. Ramachandran nair is not a political heavy weight.
    8. caste and religion factors will be more favouring Tharoor(NSS, SNDP ETC)traditionally Majority Nadar votes are also expected in UDF kitty eventhough Neelan is a candidate.
    9.More than LDF, the PDP factor will favour UDF in a big way. due to this some LDF votes will shift to UDF.
    10. Expects good polling peercentage. anything above 68% will make UDF safe.


    11.V.S ACHUTHANANDAN FACTOR..EVEN IF there is 3 % shift of CPM VOTES in favour of Tharoor is highly possible.

    as i have told earlier I am predicting Tharoor’s victory with around 15000 margin.

    pls make the discussion lively with real facts and logic.

  104. Mallu April 14, 2009 at 10:26 am

    Ninanji ! I have no analytical or critical skills like you, so, I am not going deep in to number game or history. I am a ordinary citizen who use to go through current affairs of the country but I have politics (Right Liberal). I don’t care what Shashi Tharoor wrote or said when he was in school or when he was college etc.. If you are in to political analysis there is no need to dig ones past, politics always stands for PRESENT. There is no place for PAST or FUTURE in politics, this is one thing you have to remember when you blog out in to the ordinary citizen. If we all go as per your analysis, we should call all our great leaders spineless because all of them have wrote some thing and do something or do somthing and write something, so I contempt that word “spineless” which is unwarranded in case of Mr. Shashi Tharoor. At least he worked as the Undersecretay of UN. Even though he will not come par to your excellence or analytical skill, I hope he can edge you and your candidate when it comes to his LOOKS (he..he..he..he). Anyways, I will see you in this blog on 16-05-2009 after I meet Mr. Tharoor to congratulate for his landslide Victory, Good Nite.


  105. Ninan April 14, 2009 at 12:32 pm


    Well Mr. Right Liberal, We will meet definitely after 16-05. Right now I would like to give you my advance condolences. Hold on to that and use it on 16.05 for on that day I will be away partying the success of LDF candidate.

    Good Nite

  106. Darsi April 14, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    In rural areas, majority of people do not think that Ramachandran Nair will win.
    Dr.Neelan will grab votes mostly from LDF in Kovalam, and from both LDF&UDF equaly in other places. Nadar community is really unsatisfied with both LDF&UDF for not getting a candidate from their community. because they expect it in trivandrum only.. I know many people who do election works for LDF&UDF, and think to vote for Neelan.

  107. Nair tea stall April 14, 2009 at 1:32 pm

    Agree with PRG.
    Anything above 66 % polling seems like a win for Tharoor right now. If Polling % goes up I anticipate Tharoor’s majority going up.
    While the LDF did manage to up the ante and run a disciplined campaign there is no real wave against Tharoor from all the negative campaign. Also the congress seemed to have rallied around Tharoor nicely and Neelan should poll anywhere between 75000 to 90000 votes affecting both fronts equally.

  108. Nair tea stall April 14, 2009 at 1:41 pm

    Why do you keep saying Tharoor does not enjoy the support of the UDF workers. I think he has won them over and they have rallied nicely to give the man a shot at winning.
    Whatever they lose will be compensated by the CPM and CPI drift. I do think there is one.
    Infact there was an amusing incident in our local library where one person who is a CPM sympathiser said he is going to vote for Tharoor to see what he can do as an MP and another person called him a “vanchakan”. What followed was an interesting debate, accompanied by the revelation from the CPM man that he had voted for Rajagopal in 2004. LOL
    I believe there is an undercurrent among the neutral voters who voted for Rajagopal to vote for Tharoor this time. Maybe a 5-10% (35,000 – 100,000) votes for sure which could be significant.

  109. Ninan April 14, 2009 at 2:40 pm


    Tharoor will only get a slight advantage if polling goes about 70%. Anything below is advantageous to LDF. Pannyan polled 390000 votes last time. What ever be the case, if you look at the history of election in trivandrum LDF has 275000 political votes. This has been polled even in the case where LDF candidate was defeated.

    Assume 8 lkh votes polled. which is 72% of the total.Any number less than this will be an advantage for LDF.
    Assume that BJP plus Neelan plus NCP polls 2 lac votes(Infact this should definitely be above 2.5 lac votes, anything above 2 lac will be an advantage for LDF).

    Remaining 6 lakh votes in the worst case. In such a scenario LDF with its normal political base + Islamic support + neutral votes( LDF share ) will definitely poll above 3 lac.This is what LDF campaign is calculating.

    There will be no drift between CPM and CPI in trivandrum.You only have to see the LDF campaign in trivandrum and the Deshabhimani support for Ramachandran Nair to see this.

    Congress rallying around Tharoor is not happening.Do you think the burning of Tharoor effigy was a joke? Do you think Congress leaders want someone like Tharoor to come up from trivandrum with direct access to Sonia Gandhi. Tharoor’s campaign has been run purely on money without grass root work.This will definitely refelect in the polls.

    I definitely don’t think that Tharoor will get the bulk of neutral votes.

    Please don’t underestimate the reach of LDF campaign. They do grass root work where each voter is talked to personally as opposed to Tharoor’s campaign which is more general and superficial

    The below analysis is one of the neutral ones I have read in Kerala kaumdui. Please go through this

    The latest analysis by Kerala kaumudi.

    Please consider that SNDP has not publicaly given support to Tharoor. NSS has not come out with a stand.
    Normally Christian votes are UDF vote bank. Whether the bulk polling of this vote bank will happen will depend on whether UDF has campaigned for Tharoor like they would done for say Shivakumar.

  110. mohan April 14, 2009 at 8:25 pm

    It seems that Sasi Tharoor will win the race followed by Neelan of BSP. Either one of them will bag the tvm. LDF could endup with 3rd or 4th position, contrary to the belief that LDF had a seizable chunk of consistant voters in the constituvency. most the poll predictions suverys and propaganda mechanism are not reaching common men. the voting percentage may go up this time.

  111. Vinu April 15, 2009 at 12:22 am

    hi All,
    i dont think Congress will win…!!!its not about glamour and UN post the person should understand the problems of tvm. A complete outsider cant ever know any problems.More over he has hurt the religious sentiments of a community by supporting MF Hussain.For the the LDF is havin its share of problems.The ppl will vote against it for the minority appeasment.Y only scholarship for one community…?? Constitution says equal opportunity for all…!!! secularism doesnt mean it is against Hindus…!! I think BJP might poll 1.75-2 lakh votes. BSP might get 60k to 70k.Cant predict the winner…!!

  112. manoj April 15, 2009 at 1:30 am

    why all you tvm guys talk of this nadars? i know nadars are tamils and tvm is in kerala. is this tamils controlling the capital of kerala too? Is tvm a part of tamil nadu or kerala? after reading all these discussions, i feel like tvm is not inside kerala.

  113. Gauri April 15, 2009 at 4:38 am

    It was fun to see Anthony’s interview on Asianet with Tharoor looking all puffed up nodding at the stupidist of arguments. I anyway dont think much of pseudo intelectuals (like Tharoor and sometimes myself :)< , but I believe his political degeneration has already begun. BUt, seing rallies yesterday – doubful if artihmatic will work for him.

    But – if he does win, we have something to look forward to as he has promised to convert TVM into Dubai. So all of us can look forward to booking islands off kollam beach or in one of the upcoming skyscrapersps. What else does Dubai have??? Oh yes – also the IIT’s – we can send out kids there and then Alfras finishing school – so that they can work in UN (or atleast in America) for the next 30 yrs and return to become MP’s. Im loving it. All you stupid people living and working in India paying taxes, you are not fit enough to know what is good for you. For that we have our Sonia madam and Tharoorji. JAI HO.

  114. Gauri April 15, 2009 at 4:45 am

    btw – wht do u guys think of Capt.Gopinath standing from St Bangalore? I was MAHA impressed with what he says and reason he is standing for elections. Wonder if he is all true !! U guys hv any opinion? hope he wins. We really need people like him in politics – wish I cld vote for him…

  115. Ninan April 15, 2009 at 5:19 am


    Why is my post ‘Under Moderation’.
    Did I do something wrong? Is it because it is against Tharoor which is no longer allowed here because it starts making sense.

    If it is because of my comment that Tharoor is a ‘Spineless Scholar’ , I stand by my comment.There is nothing wrong with it since his writtings and his stand today is open to the world and spineless is an apt word to describe him.

  116. Ninan April 15, 2009 at 5:25 am

    @Nair Tea Stall – One more point for you think on

    1999 – Trivandrum polling 63% – UDF won
    2004 – Trivandrum polling 69% – LDF won.

    So don’t go by the normal convention that the more the polling it is advantage for UDF candidates.

    In any election where there is 3 way strong fight , the polling% will ne higher. This time it is a 5 way fight with atleast 4 candidates will try to make all the their sure shot votes in the box.

    I would assume that the polling is around 70%. Anything less than this is a big disadvantage for Tharoor.

    There is one thing I find logical. The more the number of strong candidates , the bigger disadvantage for UDF because LDF votes are mostly stable and LDF campaign will ensure that their sure shot votes are polled.

  117. arain hug April 15, 2009 at 5:35 am


    Capt Gopinath is an army officer turned businessman tuned politician, had a short stint with BJP and got fed up with them and became again a business man and now an independant politician.I think he likes to be in limelight, nothing serious. Even about SHASHI ,

  118. arain hug April 15, 2009 at 5:36 am


    Capt Gopinath is an army officer turned businessman tuned politician, had a short stint with BJP and got fed up with them and became again a business man and now an independant politician.I think he likes to be in limelight, nothing serious. Even about SHASHI , IF he loses we will get a good book

  119. arain hug April 15, 2009 at 5:44 am

    OVERALL in kerala UDF will get nothing more than 10 seats. THAT too because the CHRISTIAN votes will go atlest 80% to UDF. LDF may win TRIVANDRUM, KOLLAM, ATTINGAL, MAVELIKKARA, ALATHUR, KANNUR, KASARGODE, VADAKARA, AND PALAKKAD.VAYANAD is dwindling. no body knows who will win.

  120. arain hug April 15, 2009 at 5:55 am


    It is being rumoured Neelan is planning to file some complaint to Election commissioner about his being not able to hold on to women voters due to interference from others.I, mean his previous vote bank.His vote bank has shrunk from 1990 days. It is 20 years now, he cant hold on to it for so long. he should give others chance.

  121. scorpiogenius April 15, 2009 at 7:27 am

    @ Ninan, you have come a long way from ‘considering to vote for Tharoor’ & ‘arguing with your dad for Tharoor’ to now abusing the candidate personally and even looking down at the mods with frowned eyes… 😉

    Now now, why am I not surprised?? 😉

  122. Darsi April 15, 2009 at 7:34 am


    I live in Kovalam assembly constituency. I am sure that he is not a corrupt politicion and he was very strict with officers while he was minister. Such people are very rare in politics.. In my very first post, i mentioned abt an MLA who stood between the mob and polics.. it was no one else but neelan.
    He was MP, MLA & minister many times.. but he still lives with his wife’s salary.. not like pinarayi vijayan.. who became millionair, from a thatched house with one room, after being electricity minister few years.

    I wish he will win… not sure.. but my vote is for him.

  123. HARI April 15, 2009 at 11:38 am

    hello….ninan u r unable to feel the pulse of trivandrum voters……its sure that tharoor will win by a thumbing margin of above 1 lakh votes than nearest candidate.

  124. BVN April 15, 2009 at 12:17 pm


    I dont know why that one comment of yrs got moderated, no clue…may its got something to do with hyperlinks…because rest all yr entries seem to have went thru. neways not intentional 🙂

  125. Ninan April 15, 2009 at 1:03 pm


    Well no more arguments from my side. I don’t want to make any blanket statements. I can also say that 1 lac vote majority and things like that but that would only be a statement of ignorance and this is not the right medium for that.Atleast since I had written a long mail with details you should have told me where I went wrong.

    I will make an other prediction based on the polling tomorrow and that’s it. There will be no more arguments from my side.

  126. Ananthapuri April 15, 2009 at 9:42 pm

    Shashi Tharoor is going to win. There is no doubt about that.

  127. arain hug April 16, 2009 at 6:12 am

    hi all,
    shashi concedes defeat.

    such low percentage was not expected.
    all of us and congress guys ensured the defeat.

  128. Gauri April 16, 2009 at 6:31 am

    @arain turnout in TVM was 65%?

  129. Ninan April 16, 2009 at 6:35 am


    Now I am making some honest analysis without any prejudice.
    I am surprised by the low polling rates. I am sure that all LDF votes has been polled.I don’t know what else happened. I honestly and humbly admit that my numbers and arguements above were based on a good polling percentage and I will have to rewrite those.

    Good polling in Rural, Coastal and Islamic dominant areas.

    It cannot be ‘Marichu kodukal’ because this will not affect the voting percentages.So possiblities

    1)Neutrals did not turn out as expected in city areas. this will affect all parties but especially UDF.

    2)Congress votes were not polled.This could mean low campaign by UDF or freezing of votes.

    We will come to know in 1 or 2 days. There will be a Pottitheri somewhere.

  130. Gauri April 16, 2009 at 8:20 am

    Hey now I thk we need to stop worring abt what our dear Dr.Tharoor will do when he loses. Yesterday I saw an advertisment on CNN IBN of Jindal Law College – where guess what – he was the MODEL !!! Im serious…not joking.

    Great going Mr Tharoor…sure way of replenesing ur coffers after the expensive (most likely failed) LS campaign.

  131. Nair tea stall April 16, 2009 at 10:40 am

    Yup..Agree with the above. Looks really really bad for Mr.Tharoor right now. Will have to crunch the numbers. But Wow !! completely unexpected this !

  132. Mallu April 16, 2009 at 11:07 am


    Don’t go frency about the polling percentage it is going to be above 60 % in TVM Anything above 55 % is in Tharoor’s favour. Just 1 reason for this christian came out in full strenght and casted their vote while others didn’t and by the way What about All kerala situation. Guys its going to be history that all the 20 seats have won by UDF.. Yahooo…

  133. Darsi April 16, 2009 at 11:59 am

    @ Mallu

    In your dreams.

  134. Ninan April 16, 2009 at 12:23 pm


    Yes 20 seats for UDF. In your hopes and I hope it rains in Ireland…

  135. Rajesh April 16, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    I am a resident of Trivandrum parliamentary constituency.
    I personnaly know people who have never voted other than leftist candidates in their life.But this time they voted in favour of Tharoor mainly due to the stand taken by the CPM in the recent political alliance intra party fights and morover the wide acceptance of Troor who has an international approach towards the development of India an TVM in particular.They decided to favour Shasi for a change.
    I hope he will win inspite of all the predictions and calculations. Wait and See !!!!!

  136. Ninan April 16, 2009 at 2:30 pm
  137. arain hug April 16, 2009 at 10:20 pm

    hi all,

    I tried hard.
    I feel the pain.
    I will go to kumarakam.
    Have few bears
    And write my musings
    And sent it to Soniaji
    I never thought, mallus are like this,
    Clever and crooked,
    jealous and stupid,
    They saw through me,
    my mask was ripped open,

    OH, I feel the pain,

    That son of *&$$$ Azhikkode, he says I look like a girl,

    Horrible ,

    OH, I feel the pain
    I will marry again, OH, ….I feel the pain.

  138. Nikhil Narayanan April 17, 2009 at 12:06 am

    Polling % in TVM was 67.79%

    Not bad,rite?


  139. PRG April 17, 2009 at 2:14 am

    The following can be the reasons

    1. becoz of the holidays, working people have gone to their native.This is high possibility. No candidate is going to gain or lose. 6% short fall can be due to this factor.
    2. Tharoor’s candidature made congress workers to freeze their votes. Less possibility. even if there is a possibility, the entire shortfall in polling percentage may not be due to this. 1 to 2% may be due to this factor.
    3.Freezing of CPM votes. It is noticed that there was non-participation and inactiveness CPM cadres in many booths.around 4% shortfall can be due to this. Some medias also reported this.
    4.There is good percentage of votes polled by Chiristians and muslims. Christian votes will favour Tharoor but regarding muslim votes, prediction cannt be made as of now.

    I feel that still Tharoor can win by 8000 to 10000 votes with the expected vote shift from LDF to UDF because of the present political scenario in the state as well as the antiincumbancy factor.

  140. Gauri April 17, 2009 at 2:22 am

    Madam Sonia’s reply to Sashi musings…

    These schemeing OLD Mallus
    Thought I’l teach them a lesson
    imported my family and friends
    from Dubai, America and London
    To impose Delhi’s rule on them.

    Oh but what have you done??
    YOu stupid Sashi –
    and your good friends Ramesh & Anthony
    you all licked my toes
    promising me a victory 20-20.

    Now Im told –
    you could’nt get people to vote
    and half means we’hv hit gold !!

    Oh my destiny –
    Will I remain Queen?
    All these clever and crooked
    Jealous and Stupid (Sigh !!!)
    people trying to unseat me.

  141. PRG April 17, 2009 at 6:08 am

    now things are need to do any big poetic story writing.Matter so sipmple. 65.73% of old mallus voted. Shashi will party with his CPM friends on May 16th evening.

  142. Santhosh V Nair April 17, 2009 at 7:41 am

    ShashiTharoor’s campaighn website is 100% recycled Barack Obama policies. By the way I don’t specifically support a candidate. I wished it was AK Antony who will compete from here. However the political equations make it impossible to elect his vacant RajyaSabha seat from Kerala if he decide to run for Lok Sabha.
    Shashi Tharoor’s public life did escape the media scrutiny. Why do people always need to believe his own narrative about himself?.. Did anyone do a proper journalism on his record?.. By the way I read some of his books including ‘Nehru the Invention of India’ and his book ‘India from midnight to millenium’. I am not saying someone who didn;t live in India other than for vacations cannot make a good parliamentarian?.. Why to experiment with my home town Trivandrum. Experiment somewhere else?.. I doubt how many here are truly from Trivandrum.

    Now some of those adventures of Shashi Taroor, What is his belief in Kashmir issue?.. See the following video. it’s Shashi Taroor’s son attending an interview right in front of a map which shows Kashmir as a separate entity from India. Also in the same interview he says 90% of Trivandrum population is vegetarian… Are you kidding me?.. Why do u get soo much into the bandwagon of praising someone without realising all their policies?..—kanishk-tharoor

  143. Santhosh V Nair April 17, 2009 at 7:47 am

    We do not need some outsider hillybilly’s. Trivandrum became International Airport when it was A Charles. Vizhinjam project was initiated when it was A Charles. Now someone termed him Useless. Come on How come ONV is better than him?.. ONV got a MA degree from Kerala Uty. So did A Charles. So what educational difference?.. He was a PSC member and Karunakaran made him resign it to run for Lok Sabha. You all are blinded by the media blitz surrounding Shashi Tharoor. He was born in London and visited Kerala only for vacations. His books are devisive and he believes in Kashmir solution by giving independence to Kashmir. He might’ve did a flip flop on it for victory in Trivandru. Big diplomat?. how come a useless Ban Ki Moon can win over him then?. Ban Ki Moon hardly speak good english as opposed to Shashi Tharoor.

  144. scorpiogenius April 17, 2009 at 8:45 am

    ^^ you mean? 😉

  145. scorpiogenius April 17, 2009 at 8:53 am

    oh yeah, its so simple isn’t it?

    Meanwhile any news about Gangadharan sir? Some of his colleagues were found under such ‘super’ influence that they required the whole length of their body to stay ‘flat’ on earth. If it was for all such farce, why contest so?

    Anyway, had good interesting discussion here. Hope the topic stays alive until May 16th , with about err 1000 comments.. Brahma? 🙂

  146. arain hug April 17, 2009 at 10:21 am


    WHY not poetry, why don’t u appreciate good things? Gauri,good very well. I am not a mallu. though Iam a keralite.Mallus dont appreciate good things in others. Iam sorry, I have to make such a comment.Mallus need to become better. Shashi was a good candidate. but he lost because Mallus like to remain Mallus.

  147. HARI April 17, 2009 at 10:26 am

    hi…Tharoor will surely win…….bye

  148. Ninan April 17, 2009 at 12:39 pm

    Some interesting news in link below. Please remove the 2 _ characters I put infront of the link. Somehow all my postings which has hyperlink goes missing here

  149. Ninan April 17, 2009 at 12:56 pm


    I know that I had said no more arguements. But this too good to leave.

    I read your predition again. Good job as usual. I would like to request you to consider the following points as well

    1)Why is the polling in Tvm city and Vatiyoorkavu the lowest.We can make many explanations like people going on vacation etc. But there has to be a plausible explanation as to why on a election with 4( even 5 ) candidates going all out. Tharoor was supposed to get a lot of neutral votes and polling should have been high. This clearly did not happen.If Tharoor did not get the neutral votes in the city do you think he will get this in outside-city areas.

    Don’t think that all the 59% votes in tvm area are Tharoor votes. LDF has strong votes in the city. Ramachandran Nair is a local leaving the city for 40 years and politicaly active in the city. He has strong pull in many areas in the city where he has lived, worked , has a lot of relatives etc.

    BJP too has a presence in the city.
    NCP will also get the major share of its vote( what ever it is from the city ).
    Heavy polling is the islamic dominant areas.

    2)You have compared the polling of current loksabha elections with last assembly elections. this will not work out correct. You should compare it with 2004 or other loksabha elections. Not even the bi-election because the total political climate was different.

    Here are the figures for 2004 elections

    Trivandrum West – 85719
    Trivandrum North – 122991
    Trivandrum East – 86923
    Nemom – 124663
    Parashala – 109233
    Neyattingara – 114439
    Kovalam – 116654

    A part of Nemom has gone to Attingal and Kazhakootam is with tvm.

    May I suggest that you think the above points over.

  150. SABU April 17, 2009 at 1:31 pm

    yes, he can lose the polls as i was one who worked thye grass root level. was in observer for a large number off polling booth. the reason i beleive is the leaders of congress who were leading the the campaign was not having any cue of how many vote the BSP candidate is going to poll.

    there was no back up plan as they thought every thing will be done through money. and not through real committment.

  151. arain hug April 18, 2009 at 11:07 am

    hi all,
    shashi loses by 8000 votes.

  152. BVN April 18, 2009 at 12:32 pm


    Good one! this (yr poem) could as well make into Shashi’s book 🙂

  153. Bala April 19, 2009 at 12:04 am

    Dear Successful” Professionals”, Active Netizens and Black-berry owners

    Thanks. I am happy to be back to this space after two years of absence in “engaging with social issues through the virtual world”. I am also deeply hurt at this moment, as the return has been spurred on primarily because few of my good friends on the same side of political positions during my college days has come out with a radically different thought.

    Let me try to put my observations on the lead piece and the comments that followed in a language and manner which could help the techno-managerial “professionals”. The key questions and arguments are

    1. What do we look for in a member of Parliament :

    I can possibly feel three sets of people among the audience in their thinking mechanism on how to go about selecting their representative: a) political ideology along with individual traits; b) only individual qualities and c) only political ideology.

    The majority of the crowd here seems to be as expected (considering their backgrounds, stage of life, caste, class etc.) in either a) or b) categories. For those who fit into the b) category the traits that have been listed are

    a. Caliber
    b. Stature
    c. Tech-savvy
    d. Knowledge and Influence of the world
    e. Experience in developmental economics
    f. Statesmanship
    g. Model – Looks of a successful, smart and savvy person
    h. Professional

    And also as someone has mentioned an important trait not to have a political background. As political background possibly means the subject is an idiot/liar.

    Many have critiqued this as middle-class activism or thinking process on political processes. ( I would like to ask a deeper question to all with such thoughts (cocky thoughts); to ask to yourself and maybe only a deep introspection and reflection could provide you an answer:

    “Is it also the criteria in which you within your societal interactions (family, neighbourhood, professional) base “success” on? “. I think the answer would be yes for middle-class “professionals” as obviously seen from the language – work experience, resume etc. Would these factors be the same for a “representative?” or is it an indirect and sub-conscious way to pat on your back, give yourself hope and project “one as similar to you among the lot” as the ideal. I would presume yes. Is it then possible to deconstruct our own understanding of success, stature etc. by examining the roots of such stereotyping?

    So in this case, is being a President of All Kerala Toddy Workers association bad in a resume and lesser than UN Under-Secretary General? International diplomacy or Sacrifice for the masses! To even look at it from a managerial lens, its been proven that managers and leaders of public systems, political organizations or non-profit organizations in challenging social contexts and within existing mechanisms have a much difficult task at hand compared to well-laid out ( minimal constraints and clear “bottom lines” ) corporate honchos. Oh, and about UN, the Volcker Committee Report had already mentioned it as corrupt and moribund.

    Success, Efficiency, Effectiveness, Professionalism, Knowledge! So people, who think it’s an apolitical stance, please re-look at the language and understand the capitalistic roots of the same. Values, Ethos, Passion, Humility, Sacrifice and Love may not be in your corporate vision statements, but maybe in your Che T-shirts! So maybe it matters!

    And about Mr. Tharoor’s indidividual traits, lest hear from him as he joined AFRAS Ventures: “So in my re-booting, I figured out having spent a lifetime in public service, that I should do something that I’ve never done before, that would stretch me a little bit.” . Retirement from Public Service? Did I hear like switching jobs? Post-retirement Benefits? Maybe like retirement from political thinking once out of college! (

    For voters in category a), I presume campaigners of Mr. Tharoor are also convinced about Congress ideology. It was a pleasure reading Naga’s critiquing of the same. I am sure the voters in this bracket would have an equally strong argument on Congress’s vision and processes, and they better have. Mr. Tharoor says “Israel is a small country living in a permanent state of siege, highly security-conscious and surrounded by forces hostile to it; India is a giant country whose borders are notoriously permeable, an open society known for its lax and easygoing ways.” Why not? When we all know who rules UN (his ex-employer) and who their partners in crime are. Oh but Muslims in the constituency should only be bothered about their children getting into Techno park and not about Israel. Anyone who understands political processes would clearly understand the need to understand the impact on micro-level realities from even international history and strategies. I thought that was being a global citizen, rather than having a Canadian wife, Yorkshire Accent, American citizenship and Indian birth. Anyways he is a writer par-excellence and an expert in international diplomacy, so he said the Israel statement: “It has taught me a lesson as a writer not to write on something that was an ongoing situation when the situation itself was likely to evolve beyond the ordinary. So that is the one mistake for which I am willing to apologize”. Thanks Shashi. Appreciate you on this count, the humility to apologize. Was this supposed to be the basics for a diplomat? Maybe you learn slowly or maybe you were indebted to US?

    Again Shashi’s ability to understand US politics and economics, should have been his strength. Not so from this statement during Obama campaign.! “The threat to outsourcing is also exaggerated. Obama will certainly keep his promise to provide tax incentives to American companies that keep their employees in the US. But at a time of economic downturn, few companies are going to be able to afford to overlook the benefits of getting business processes conducted abroad — benefits likely to be far greater than the tax dollars gained by not doing so. Instead of over-reacting to a campaign promise, we should wait and see how it is implemented. It is unlikely the actual numbers will provide any cause for alarm.”. Tell this to parents of many techies in Sreekariyam and Venjaramoodu, who are jobless three months after the statement was made.!

    Oh forgot to mention that, as a curtain raise to his entry into politics, he had written something on Sonia. And it goes “That of the woman of principle who demonstrated that one could stand for the right values even in a profession corroded by cynicism”. No Comments!

    2. What’s good for Trivandrum? I am not surprised to hear that Black-berry yielding technocrats and managers feel the need for the city to provide more spaces for growth through a Dubai model and mock at public comfort stations. Anyways Shashi Tharoor and kinds would never ever need or have seen a public comfort station when they can have Dubai-styled washrooms in their cozy confines. Unfortunately (people with lesser privileges), also live in this constituency. And anyone who understands politics and elections would understand vision is not the vision of an individual in a political democracy like ours as it exists.

    To sum it up…The title “Can Shashi Tharoor lose?” aptly captures the sentiment of a section of society – whose composition (economic, caste and class wise) and also where their heart is. I respect your stance. Still, I pray that he loses. Maybe, Post May 16, I might be crying! Still my belief in pro-poor politics, of representation of issues affecting the marginalized and belief in politics as a representation of multiple aspirations, and politics as public service not profession, will go on! After five years, I hope to come back and bet that people – fish workers, slum dwellers, tribals, wage-laborers and marginal farmers – will understand that it is important to elect “a practitioner of politics, in touch with social realities” rather than an “efficient diplomat-manager”. And also hope against hope that the “netizen class” is brought in touch with reality of actual politiking and change, and have the heart and perspective to feel and think from the shoes of communities less privileged than they are.

    Anyways, await a book “Burgers and Steak: Made in Chicago, Eaten in Chalai”! And show-stopping ramp-walk for “Karalkada”

  154. Gauri April 19, 2009 at 12:54 am

    @BVN Yeaa…I give permission to Shashi dear to use it…anyway dont think he ask for permission…im sure he can pass it off as his own by replacing a few words here-and there…eg use ‘TVM’ instead of Sashi & ‘America’ instd of Delhi and ‘neta’s’ instead of good friend and ‘King’ instead of Queen….and lo-behold – the title of the poem changes to ‘Shashi’s musings to the world’. Im not really a political person..but loved every moment reading ur blg…

  155. Gauri April 19, 2009 at 12:54 am

    @BVN Yeaa…I give permission to Shashi dear to use it…anyway dont think he ask for permission…im sure he will pass it off as his own by replacing a few words here-and there…eg use ‘TVM’ instead of Sashi & ‘America’ instd of Delhi and ‘neta’s’ instead of good friend and ‘King’ instead of Queen….and lo-behold – the title of the poem changes to ‘Shashi’s musings to the world’. Im not really a political person..but loved every moment reading ur blg…

  156. Nair tea stall April 19, 2009 at 2:20 am


    Thanks for the comments. You know while I agree with your arguments , You have to admit that factors like Mr.Nair’s local influence are things we cant take into account when doing a prediction based on Numbers.
    like we say, the majority we predict is just about 1.5% of the votes polled now that is insignificant within the margin of error. It could go either way easily. But we have predicted 110,000 votes for Neelan. Now if he does not get that much (say he gets only 75,000) and assuming the BJP also does not get more, then we think UDF majority will increase by another 10K.
    Also thanks for those 2004 numbers, I could not get the detailed 2004 assembly wise numbers earlier. Do you have the percentages. Our only intention in comparing the 2009 numbers with the 2006 assembly election polling %s was to show that polling inside the city was not low as the media projects it. The city has always polled the same or lesser. So the argument that the city voter was not enthusiastic or the congress voters in the city did not poll or were not successfull in getting people to vote does not hold.

  157. Ninan April 19, 2009 at 4:00 am


    I don’t have the % figures. I will try to get the same.

    The low polling in the city will affect Tharoor’s chances dramatically. This is because the UDF assumption was that Tharoor will get a huge lead from the city because City voters will come out in hoards and vote for Tharoor. It is clear that this has not happened. Now Tharoor will get only a nominal lead(if at all) because the 59% wil be cut between Tharoor, LDF, BJP and NCP. Not counting Neelan here because his pull is negligible here.

    If city neutral voters did not find Tharoor’s candidature a blessing and vote for him , I can’t imagine how this will happen in non-city areas.

    If congress/Tharoor’s campaign had worked big time then city polling% should have been high…is it not?? This is Tharoor’s biggest vote bank.

    Agree that your prediction is well within the % of error.All predictions for a thumping victory for Tharoor when the campaign started has been reducing with every week of the campaign and we are at 50-50 now or in favour of LDF.

  158. Manoj April 19, 2009 at 6:17 am

    Now I understood why TVM is not become like other state capitals in India

  159. Ajay April 19, 2009 at 9:14 am

    I have been keeping off this discussion for some time now, since I felt that it is best to wait for the results to come out rather than engage in idle speculation without the full facts. I just want to put a couple of facts right.

    The voter turnout in Trivandrum is pretty much the same, as per the latest figures at the Chief Election Officer’s website. It was about 68% last time, and it is 67% this time. A small drop like this can easily be accounted for by the “vacation factor”. So there is no drastic drop, that was a mistake in the numbers.

    What is true that the 3 – 10% hike seen in Middle and North Kerala was not repeated in Trivandrum nor the rest of the Travancorean constituencies. One explanation is that the surge seen in minority votes elsewhere has not happened here for some reason. The other is that the minorities did vote more heavily than last time but some other segment voted correspondingly less. Politically, this could have been the CPM swiping a few votes to send the CPI packing, because only the CPM and, to a lesser extent, the BJP have the cadre structure to regimentally manipulate votes. Socially, there could have been an abstention among Hindus due to the sectarian alignments of the two fronts while the BJP continues to be a non-viable choice.

    I think the former is true – the minority voters in Trivandrum and South Kerala were less swayed than the those in the highly polarised areas elsewhere. Possibly, Trivandrum has thus been the least sectarian of the constituencies in Kerala.

    More than Tharoor or the election in Trivandrum, I think the key aspect of this round has been the way sectarian voting has come to the fore in Kerala. It has always been the case, especially in the case of the UDF but now the LDF too has joined the party, so as to speak. No longer will we be able to say that Kerala is the least sectarian State in India. Sad, but that seems to be the case.

    It is most likely that the voting patterns have not changed drastically from 2004. If anything, there may have been an influx of young, first-time voters and an efflux of older, hindu voters. The situation has not tilted in anyone’s favor. All the factors and equations we discussed before the 16th still hold pretty much true. The fight’s still wide open and I think nothing has happened to lessen Tharoor’s chances as seemed the case when the first figures came in on the evening of the 16th.

    That’s my $ 0.02 and I will bide my time now till May 16th and hope that there are no nasty surprises.


  160. Ajay April 19, 2009 at 9:18 am

    @ Manoj – The only reason Trivandrum may have lagged behind some of the other State Capitals in India is because Kerala is the only State where each district claims itself as the capital of something. No other State would claim a “judicial capital”, “commercial capital”, “cultural capital”, “rubber capital”, “halwa capital” and what not. The other States have one Capital and then the other cities, big and small.

    Till we recognise that fact, Kerala will never have a capital to match Bangalore or Chennai, however hard Trivandrum tries. That is why there is a tussle to restore the HC Bench in Trivandrum or why the Government wants to develop a gazillion IT parks before the State’s primary IT/ITES center – Trivandrum – itself is firmly established.


  161. Rajesh April 19, 2009 at 12:30 pm

    I strongly agree with Ajay.
    The possibility to change Trivandrum in to major city of the state remain difficult in the near future, though it will happen one day just not because it is my home town but the facts.The cause for that is going even to history. There was no kerala until 1956, only travancore,cochin and madras regions(malabar)joined togother on the common basis of malayalam language to form a state. This moment thanks to the great maharajas of travancore based in TVM.Only bacuse of them and the then CM, Pattom Thanupillai who made Trivandrum the captal of kerala.Otherwise our city would have been another Kasaragod which is being used at present to punish the govt. employees by transferring to there. Geographically also problems with this lovely city is in the south most costal area of india. As a district the city center of trivandrum hardly serves the people of TVM and kollam Where as cities like kochi is in the middile of kerela and a center for alleppy, ekm,idukki trichur,pathanamthitta, palakkad etc. Another factor is that those districts are the NRI belt and purchasing power of people are much higher where TVM people are conventionally the NGOs and labours.The availability of land for a new project is also another problem. This city’s most regions are highly good for residential set up, so need lots of eviction of families to acquire land. In other major citis have are water logged land available which only needs to fill with soil. The immediate solution for this problems are the Techocity, Vizhinjam port,The high court ,IIT, IISER etc.In this context we need to look at the candidates of TVM. If LDF win they will either support congress or 3rd front from outside and most likely may not join in the government& Conduct anti-central riots, blame the govt. ,which they are supporting. They themslf will not do any thing and wont allow others to do as well.If Mr. Tharoor wins it is sure that he will get an important portfolio in the central ministry, I think he will be a minister even if he looses in TVM, remember he is going to campaign for Rahul gandhi. The last time there were 11 central ministers from Tamilnadu out of some 38 MPs. How is that, the majot portfolios including finance home health railway etc were tamilans. They got NSG center in chennai, national maritime uty. salem Rly devision, ramsethu and much more. Our MPs got some promises.and they are very efficient in doing dharnas. If we are lucky Mr. Taroor will win.
    Lets pray for that.

  162. Mallu April 19, 2009 at 12:36 pm

    I don’t understand why these LDF Goons in this blog still doing the Plus & Minus of Polling percentage ?. Its a truth ! that UDF is going to win 20 seats. Accept the reality now and face truth gracefully on 16th May, otherwise many of these LDF cracks will be freezing with shock. What these communist have done for people of Kerala ?. You people people will analysis what happened in 1960,70,80 and compare with 2000, 05 ,09 this is the best thing LDF is good (sorry i forget 1 major work they do sincerely THE STRIKES). People have fedup with these hypocrites. Let the congress come to power and have a better & Peaceful INDIA

  163. Gauri April 20, 2009 at 4:39 am

    Sashi’s farewell speach to TVM –

    Im finished with you TVM
    Now South Mumbai will gain
    That’s my next destination
    where I am going to campaign.

    Also Im more at home there
    In towers and business suits
    thankgod i can discard these mundus’
    THAT DRAMA has ended – for good.

    So what if I lost in TVM
    I still remain the favorite of PM
    Now Mumbai can become Shanghai
    I just have to wave my green flag
    and say ‘ABRA KA DABRA – HERE YOU GO’

    Full of teenage memories and more.
    Anyway the Deora’s are no good
    So will tell Mumbai – vote ONLY next time
    (for me ofcourse!!)

    So you jealous guys go drown –
    And just you watch one day
    When Rahulji will be PM crownd
    I will return to RULE OVER you as CM.

    SO all you nothings remember
    To throw rose pettals whenever
    I happen to visit your dirty streets
    To make SOME incredible speach.

    (Shashi pla transfer $10 to my swiss ac 420 for this speach. If you want it re-written pls send suggestions with additional $10. You can then own the copywrite)

  164. Manoj April 20, 2009 at 9:10 am


    Do you think that if TVM get the high court bench, TVM become like chennai or Bangalore? If so, it is will be this years joke and I can post it in

    Do you know when TVM airport declared as the 5th International airport in India, all of us, were thinking that TVM will become Indians 5th Metro. where is TVM now?

    Around 7-8 years back, HYD do not have any IT parks, that time also TVM has this technopark. Now HYD is a metro with hundreds of IT parks, what about TVM now? How many IT parks?

    When I worked in Bangalore, all Telugus guys will form a group and then move a part of that company to HYD so that they can work near from home. Do yo think that any mallu wil do like this?

  165. Mallu April 20, 2009 at 9:39 am

    Manoj I completly agreeing with you. You got the point. All these happened only because of the communist. There agenda is the destruction of mallu soceity and development of state. They are taking study classes and brain wash the poor poeple and these poor fellows they will follow the goon who took the class and destroy what ever he see in front of him this is what they are teaching in study class. I feel sorry to see people here talking aganist Mr. Tharoor. Such a little people who are critisizing a good leader. What ever you people say what ever you do the educated people of TVM will elect Mr. Tharoor.

  166. arain hug April 20, 2009 at 9:36 pm

    @mallu , manoj,

    But why did Congress field Shashi Taroor. You mean to say he is most IDEAL?. Sorry. They could have fielded a MR.Sridhar, or the likes of people who have Domain knowledge. I will salute the wisdom of TVM guys if he loses. Initially I was also a supporter of Shashi. But when I realised that he is not just accessible, I said hell with him.@GAURI. good poem. Continue the spree.

  167. Narayan April 21, 2009 at 3:17 am

    I completely agree with Ajay and Rajesh. Shashi Tharoor is a ray of hope for Trivandrum and I feel that he is sincere about his intentions. Lets hope that he will ultimately prevail. Just look at the MP’s from Trivandrum in the recent past. A Charles, VS Sivakumar, PKV, Pannyan. What kind of development did they bring to Trivandrum?. There is a joke that only reason why A Charles used to get up in parliament was to tighten his mundu. We are all aware of Kochi lobby which tries their best to thwart every bit of development that occurs in the Capital city. If Mr Tharoor wins then we will have a very powerful voice who can silence all these Kochi lobbyists. I dont know why lot of people are irritated by Shashi Tharoors candidacy. He understands the issues and is willing to take up our cause, why not give this guy a chance. We are not loosing anything here….Unless you want to pursue the communist party’s silly agendas I dont see why any genuine Trivandrum native would oppose Tharoor. I voted for O Rajagopal and even though he lost, he ended up helping Kerala better than any other MP from our state. Look at Tamilians, it doesnt matter if AIADMK or DMK gets the upperhands they are focused on real development. We malayalis should put aside our party and religious idealogies and see who can bring real development and support them. Like the old malayalam saying “Pothinodu vedam othiyittu karyamilla” still I just want to express my thoughts after seeing the negative propaganda targeted towards Tharoor in this forum.

  168. rons April 21, 2009 at 6:20 am

    vote analysis

    The UDF CANDIDATE would have won easily in TRIVANDRUM , if it is other than tharoor in trivandrum.
    Now there is chances for nadar and LDF. … even tharoor could suprise every body with a record win!!!

    VOTES IN 2009 – LATEST

    1) KOVALAM – 1,16,384
    2) NEYYATINKARA – 1,03,012
    3) PARASHALA – 1,17,985
    4) NEMOM – 1,00,012
    5) VATTIYOORKAVU – 1,00,437
    6) KAZHAKUTTOM – 94,712
    7) THIRUVANTHAPURAM – 96,859

    Total around 7.29 lakhs
    Factors favoring tharoor

    Again i feel the Trivandrum still favors tharoor for his charisma , education qualifications , international
    image – good range , looks !!!, can also be a cabinet minister.

    1. Nair votes

    Large chunk of nair votes favoring LDF and BJP – this time is going to vote for shri tharoor.

    2. Nadar vote split

    Nadars – especially church leaders, christian nadars and tech- savies , medicos will vote for him (
    mainly the upper crust and some lower crust , some doen’t like neelan )

    3. Latin catholic upper crust votes

    church leaders , kanyasthrikal , etc….

    4. The general favour of any UDF candidate in this election. – so large number of unbiased vote may come for tharoor.

    5. Techies , educated class , new breed of innocent educated voters generally favors much hyped tharoor.

    6. The LDF candidate will be getting less votes as the party feel CPM supported less the CPI canditates.

    They says only 2.9 lakhs of votes out of 3.5 lakhs of LDF only polled … even that may not be true.

    7. Muslim votes .

    This need to be seen – whether they are with extremist maduny they will vote for LDF … trouble water for the kerala state !!! or if they are with moderate muslim leaque – vote will be for UDF….

    tharoor – first , then LDF , then neelan ,then BJP.


    1. Nadar votes.

    A general feeling is with the nadar that their choice of candidate is not fielded in the election.
    If the feeling is strong ( not very strong ) then neelan might lead in Kovalam , neyyatinkara and parashala and
    might come second in nemon … dont know about kazhakuttom.

    Even tharoor admits his lead will be less in nemom and kazhakkutam – general feeling LDF will get more
    votes there. UDF generally feels other than these two constituencies , tharoor will lead…i feel that wont happen.

    …so these votes is going to decide the fate of tharoor. Nadars generally favours UDF.

    2. Ezhava votes and dalits – this time might vote be for neelan – an LDF vote bank.

    3. Coastal region – Latin catholic votes favors the nadar .

    4. state congress doesnt worked well for congress.

    If the above factors comes together then neelan will be not less than second position … also might win.

    in that case nadar will win , tharoor second , LDF third , BJP fourth.

    ( a verse case of throor -> since neelan also anchor on the same vote bank and if LDF and BJP gets its vote.

    neelan -first , then LDF , then Tharoor , then BJP )


    1. If nadars and coastal latin catholic votes moves towards UDF then there will be a big drain in the vote bank of

    2. If LDF and BJP gets all its votes … nair vote split

    then LDF will win , nadar second , tharoor third , BJP fourth.

    This is the general vote analysis of the trivandrum .

  169. Binz April 22, 2009 at 1:26 am

    why cant we give Tharoor a chance ? Anyways we elected so many politicians and nothing changed here.

  170. Sreeram April 22, 2009 at 3:05 pm

    Very interesting discussion. I was really lazy to read the whole thing. So I took a “word cloud” of the discussion.

    So only thing conclusive based on the cloud is that “Tharoor” “Shashi” is the “Congress” “Candidate” from “Trivandrum”. Phoh why waste time reading it. But all, please do post post-election reactions. Really curious to read em.


  171. admin April 23, 2009 at 12:55 pm



  172. Rajesh April 25, 2009 at 10:55 am

    Hi, some thoughts and the ground reality about Mr.Tharoor in TVM constituency!!!

    Many people in TVM don’t know that Tharoor is from Nair (menon) community. This attracted people who don’t support a particular caste.
    SNDP supported Mr.Tharoor

    Some people think he is Christian- because his wife’s name is Christy- attracted Christian voters.

    He is not a native of TVM- past MPs Pannyan, PKV were not originally from here. Even the Rajagopal who attracted people beyond the limits of party politics is not a native. If known to many people more chance to get votes but at the same time there will be more enemies as well, who will do all they can to prevent one from coming to power !!!!-another plus point for Tharoor

    Don’t think that the people will not vote for another party candidate if they have voted in the past. People did not surrender their opinion to some stupid parties either left or right for the rest of their life. I.e. if LDF got more votes in the past election they are not going to vote for LDF for life long- Here comes the prediction of victory in terms of camparing percentage of votes and the trend of voting pattern of different communities according to the previous elections. In Tamilnadu DMK won all 38 seats last time before it was AIADMK.

    The glamour of Mr. Tharoor – this is a matter of fact that this handsome guy attracted the hearts and minds of ladies particularly. These will definitely going to reflect in the result.

    Will Tharoor win or not, you decide it !!!

  173. arain hug April 30, 2009 at 12:25 pm

    hi friends,
    LATEST reports indicate Congress is winning only in 4 constituencies. ALEPPY, ERNAKULAM, CHALAKUDY , TRICHUR

  174. scorpiogenius May 1, 2009 at 4:59 am

    @ arian hug.. ‘reports’?? *cough* *cough*

  175. sam May 3, 2009 at 5:10 pm

    did anyone hear abt sasi Tharoor after election date…may be he is in Dubai with girl friend..or may be in Canada with wife…!!! If TVM people selects him it will a disgrace..Selecting sone one voteing for first time..some one just using TVM to lauch his ambition..Hope TVM people are educated enough to select a good candidaye

  176. avid May 4, 2009 at 4:29 pm


    Yes, I did learn about Dr Shashi Tharoor after election date.

    After his court appearance on April 18th, he had gone to Mumbai for his party’s campaign. He had also been in Chennai as well as New Delhi on various counts.

    You seemed to be more bothered about his girlfriend (?) and his wife in Canada than Dr Tharoor himself is. At least that is what I could derive from the tone of your post and his engagements over the last couple of weeks.

    Wednesday, April 22, 2009

    Mumbai: Interaction with representatives of the print and electronic media at Indian Merchants’ Chambers (IMC), Mumbai.

    Thursday, April 22, 2009

    Interaction with students from various South Mumbai colleges at KC College. The event organized by was to discuss how young India can bring about a change through their political choices.

    Tuesday, April 28, 2009

    CHENNAI: Chief Guest at a convocation ceremony at Great Lakes Institute of Management.

    Saturday, May 02, 2009

    New Delhi: Gave the Shriram Memorial Lecture, organized by PHD Chamber.

    All you got to do is to set a google news alert on his name. The moment he is on media, it is there for you. And all these events were indeed covered by media.

    Now, as for selecting someone who is voting for the first time and someone who is using TVM to launch his ambition: You think he is a disgrace being a first-time voter? Fine, stick to it. You think he is using TVM to launch his (political) ambition and again it is a disgrace? Fine, stick even harder to it.

    I have more valid reasons to pin my constituency’s and the nation’s hopes on him. And let me stick to it, please.

    And lastly, you seem to take pride for being one amongst the educated people of TVM, but English can’t be your stream of education, at least so to guess reading your 8-line post that had spelling errors, subject-verb agreement mistakes, and omissions.

  177. Nikhil Narayanan May 5, 2009 at 1:01 am

    Could not resist this comment.A high five for you.
    You just stole words from my mouth.
    Tell him it is election and NOT selection 😉


  178. scorpiogenius May 6, 2009 at 7:41 am

    Well done Avid…
    Yes Nikhil, some people need to keep their tabs right before vomiting up such sullage.

    And for the other ‘curious Sams’ you can update yourself on whats going on around us.

    Tharoor is in NY now, if that makes you happy. Dont rejoice too much, he will be back pretty soon and will be able to do better than Charles, Pannyan and co if elected.


  179. Rajesh May 6, 2009 at 7:41 am

    It seems pople like Sam still live in 19th century. Remember this is 21st century. He may like the usual politicians who is available most of the time in the constituency going to funerals, attending the marriage without inviting them showing their vulgar face. We need a change. That is not what people expect from a parliament member.His sound should echo not just in the parliament but all over indiaand abroad and he must be a true representative of Trivandrum. He must reflect the aspirations of Tvm. If you can express what is in your mind, then you won 50%.We are selecting the MP not to sit in Thampanoor!!!

  180. Sam May 6, 2009 at 11:55 am

    Hooo..How blessed we indians aree…We have Italian Prostitute as Back seat PM…US/British arse licker as PM, who thinks we could have been better if British ruled India now..!! We have set of US agents have their base in US & here just to make sure US company interests (say Coke/Pepsi) are protected…Shame shame on TVM you select this US ahent as ur MP…I am not sure on what basis he got in to Voters list..shame to be an Indian now..

  181. Sam May 6, 2009 at 12:09 pm

    I read many posts above…My advice to them is Fair skin & clean shave alone does not make any one a good MP..

    Those 2 alone are good for only a gigolo( male prostitute) like our PM in waiting Antonio Maino’s son Rahum Maino..

  182. Sam May 6, 2009 at 12:11 pm

    Also fools sitting in NY or Lon can not decide what good for TVM..

  183. BVN May 6, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    @Sam, 🙂

    don’t you think calling Sonia an Italian Pro. is exaggerating it a bit 🙂

    don’t you feel bad about your outburst now 🙂

  184. Rajesh May 7, 2009 at 12:50 pm

    I don’t know how Sam clearly know that Sonia is a prostitute, did you have any
    experience with her Or you are dreaming the white skin . It felt like you are an ugly guy with black skin- you are jealous about those fair skinned men.
    Your like petty capitalist people will not be able to celebrate without Coke /Pepsi.
    You are blaming the NY-LON people as fools. But if you want a highly paid job you will work as a servant for them without any hesitation or even with proud in an outsourcing centre.
    AND you will do anything you can to get a HB1 visa !!!!!-What a joke and double standard

  185. Arun Mohan S May 10, 2009 at 1:10 am

    TVM feeling is only there in the heart people. People of malabar has no love for her, or they have hatred. I had a collegue in punne who wanted to shift his base to Bangalore(while i was trying shift to TVM). I use asked Y not TVM. He listed somany thing distance, location, weather, metro outlook blabla. atalest it came ot openly ie, he doest like TVM and its people, expecially girls, bribery, dowry all such nonsense. i tried to correct but in vein.
    As for TVM tharoor might had been good choice for TVM(ho will loose), however not sure, it wud happen like mr VK krishna menon. This guy also might run away.
    But he would loose since there are 1.5(80% polled) Muslim votes and more than 75% did not vote for LDF. When nair, ezhava, Nadar, Christian vote bases shared among main contentants. Muslim vote were really shifted the pendulm

  186. Arun Mohan S May 10, 2009 at 1:12 am

    But he would loose since there are 1.5(80% polled) Lakh Muslim votes and more than 75% did not vote for Tharoor. When nair, ezhava, Nadar, Christian vote bases shared among main contentants. Muslim vote were really shifted the pendulm

  187. Rajesh May 11, 2009 at 8:33 am

    In the emerging political scenario I will not be surprised if Advaniji become the Prime Minister.
    O.Rajagoppal/ Krishnadas can be a Ministerial candidate

  188. Nitin May 11, 2009 at 3:02 pm

    I don’t see how Christian votes will be shared among the main candidates, espcially this time…BJP? Come on. LDF? Not this time, sorry. BSP out of the question. Shashi will romp home with the overwhelming majority of the Christian vote. Not sure about the Muslim vote though. Also, no chance of Advani as PM in any scenario. My assessment is:
    UPA -207
    NDA -163
    OTHERS -173 (Left+ 4th Front =64)

    UPA + Left + 4th Front= 271. Plus a few independents and others. I’m from Mumbai/Cochin but i hope Shashi makes it, this is a very imortant contest. I’ve had the honour of meeting him, and he’s a gem of a person. And of course, very well qualified.

  189. Arun Mohan S May 13, 2009 at 6:17 am

    U r from mumbai/cochin. so u dont the pulse of TVM. Nadars will only vote for Neelan and 50% christians in TVM are NADAR chsristians. Plus a section latin catholics also voted for Neelan. Nadars were always congress vote bank. With them voting for neelan, Tharoor has no chance

  190. Nitin May 13, 2009 at 1:20 pm

    Turns out you’re right about the Christian population in TVM. I’m going to have to eat my words, serves me right for commenting on a topic I’m not very knowledgeable about. The Christians in Cochin, whether, Syrian, latin or otherwise, are so different! I cannot for the life of me imagine people from the Christian community voting for BSP candidate! What reassures me, however, is that Dr Shashi Tharoor does not strike me as the sort of person who would exaggerate chances. If he felt he wereheading for a loss, he’s be a bit more indirect and focus more on his idealiistic and progressive campaign, etc. But, I assure you, he is EXTREMELY confident of a win. He even said that experts and analysts from Trivandrum with a good knowledge of the situation on the ground, who were affiliated with the Left and the BJP had predicted a win for him. Hope he’s right. 🙂

  191. Rajesh May 13, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    @ Arun,
    The percentage of nadar population in Tvm is exaggerated.
    They are only less than 20%. More in Parassala, Neyyattinkara, and Kovalam and little bit in Nemom.Actually the Nair community is the main caste in TVM. I agree with your opinion that they will vote for Neelan but not all of them. Traditionally Nadars are followers of congress party. They don’t consider the charisma of Mr. Tharoor but the Kaippathy symbol of congress. I am not forgetting that Sundaran nadar won parassala assembly constituency as an independent candidate. But things are not the same like that. Manly the Sonia factor as congress leader(Christian) and the general feeling that Neelan is not going to win but only he can he can be a threat to the mainstream candidates!!

  192. Arun Mohan S May 13, 2009 at 10:46 pm

    None of kerala community has majority in TVM. Even nairs. they form24% of TVM electrorate and Nadar come around 20%.(in future nadar votes will increase while nairs will decrease . any nadar maarries to non-nadar, christian or hindu, he will automatically become a nadar!!!!!) Nair votes will be equally divided b/w INC, congress and . While there will be consolidation of nadar votes. If they only vote for Hand, then what happened to rakhuchandrabal. Neela will get 1.5 lakhs of votes and 65% of votes will that of UDF. Also UDF panchayaths in Nemam moved to kattakkada assembly segment of Attingal. LDF panchayaths of Kazhakkootam moved TVM. This along with Muslims votes will make Advantage Nair. Tharoor will win online poles in Orkut and other kerala forums, not in TVM

  193. Arun Mohan S May 13, 2009 at 10:51 pm

    Also its joke that Christians are voting for UDF because sonia. Its because church doesnt have any say in LDF govt and also church’s main business will not work out with CPM.Christians are always UDF vote back and even in last assembly/parliment election only 20% of christians voted for LDF. However, this time LDF will not get half of this. UDF also cannot claim that the christians votes which was with will come to its’ kitty because of Neelan and Murali effect.

  194. Arun Mohan S May 13, 2009 at 11:04 pm

    Its not that people from Christians(Nadars) voting for BSP. They are voting for a Nadar. He will also get some dalit and latin catholic votes. Hindu dalit votesare Mostly LDF previously and christian dalits(Amboori panachath etc) are UDf previously. latin catholics in Koavalam, kazhakootam 50:50% for UDF/LDF previously. So neelan will get 1.5 lakh votes. This 65:35 votes of UDF:LDF. (A large section LDF votes in Kovalam will go to Neelan). With delimitaion of Nemam and Kazhakoottam will make 5000 additinal lead for LDF. Tharorr’s image will be nullifeid by neelan effect and Muslims/this 5000 lead will make Nair romp home with 10000 votes minimum

  195. Nitin May 13, 2009 at 11:30 pm

    ‘Almost all major constituencies have namesakes. A Shashi Tharoor from Tharoor village in Palghat, and another Shashi Aroor from Aroor village in Aleppey district are posing challenge to the Congress party candidate Shashi Tharoor in Trivandrum. ‘

    I’d like to know why nonsense like this is tolerated in a place like Kerala.

    Also, out of curiousity, I noticed that places outside of kerala had the EC rule in effect many months before polling. In Bombay, for instance, even signboards mentioning which party/leader carried out the beautification of a road, etc, were covered up with cloths. Why is it that kerala was simply teeming with banners and signs of political parties? Did they decide not to implement the rule simply because giver how politically active the state is, it would be too tough a task to cover all that up? In Hyderabad , for instance , they had to cover up NTR statues as that would amount to campaigning, lol.

  196. arain hug May 14, 2009 at 1:32 am

    HERE we are treated like slaves by politicians and media alike. we have no say, just take it or leave it. what a shame to the so called educated “Devils’ own people”

  197. Rajesh May 14, 2009 at 8:31 am

    I don’t understand why Arun is obsessed with the Nadar vote in TVM. If at all Tharoor fails in TVM that is not just because of Nadar Votes. The total number of voters in TVM is 1102476 . There was only 67% turn out in the election. That means the total polled votes are appx. 738658. Think Nadar community is appx 20% that means the vote shares of nadar among the polled votes are appx. 147731. If ALL the nadars voted in favour of Neelan(impossible) then also it is less than 1.5 lakhs which is less than your calculation. There is no consolidation of dalith in favour of BSP, but only he will get Nadar votes and no BSP in TVM. According to your assessment itself the nadar voting ratio is 65:35 . So the real practical difference in vote loss is appx.30000 against Tharoor.

    Neelan will not get more than 75000 votes

    Another interesting fact is that NSS members –not NSS leadership, is favouring Ramachandran Nair. I know that Karayogam members campaigned for LDF candidate due to his local relationships –NOT SURE IT WILL WORK OUT.

  198. Rajesh May 14, 2009 at 8:39 am

    There is no Murali effect in TVM.
    M P Gangadharan will get less than 10000 votes , which any independent candidate will get.

  199. Arun Mohan S May 14, 2009 at 9:03 pm

    I was not talking abt murali effect in TVM, but because of this UDF may not get CHsristian votes as ecpected in Wayanadu. thats total chsristan % will be less.

  200. Arun Mohan S May 14, 2009 at 9:15 pm

    Rajesh FYI, BSP polled 15000 votes in all 7 assembly seats in last 2006 election. There are some ezhava votes also gone to neelan(Nadars are racially similar to ezhavas) also neelans wife is ezhava. Latin catholic votes also polled in favour of Neelan in Koavalam. A lot dalit chsristins and hindu dalist polled for neelan will make him to reach 1.5 lakh. If SNDP/ezhavas (they form 15%) supported like they did for O Rajagopal, at least 50000 votes should have moved to neelan and he would have won by small margin.

    Yes nair has local links. his brother’s relative is memebr of NSS karayogam, in karamana. He is working TVM for last 40 years + he is an advacate, was in forefront in HC Bench agaitation. He will also get some personal votes

  201. avid May 14, 2009 at 11:37 pm

    Hours to go before the D-day. Analyses aside, I am as anxious as Dr Tharoor himself, if not a bit more. But after a month-long smear campaign and an even punishingly long wait thereafter, I am still optimistic.

    As Dr Tharoor himself puts it: A pessimist says everything is bound to go wrong, an optimist says things might just go right.

    *Hope Uncle Sam would not find this post offending or provocative to throw abuses, as my earlier one did.

  202. Nitin May 15, 2009 at 3:26 am

    He seems quite confident of a win. Either way, he’s given his best, and has run a campaign that makes me proud as a Congress supporter, transcending caste, religion and antiquated ideology. That is the Congress’ hallmark. When people in an enlightened and well-informed state like Kerala don’t grab an opportunity like this with both hands, well..I’ll tell you what I think after the results 🙂

  203. Manoj May 15, 2009 at 7:34 am


    what is the use of sending a Tamil nadar from TVM to New Delhi? why you do not have any Malayaless in TVM?

  204. Arun Mohan S May 15, 2009 at 10:29 am

    FYI, nadars assimilated in malayalm culture. U know till 13th century, in south TN nadars were known as Ezhavas, while ezhavs in south kerala were known as channars(same as Nadars). Later they abosrbed new name Nadars and illathu pillai, a vellala sect started claiming as ezhavas. Most of nairs south Kerala are migrants from TN only. There is sect called Tamil Padanilam nairs in kerala basically migrants from TN only. Nair surname in south is recent one, previously was pillai, a tamil word for son of soil, or farmer. Not only no cast in kerala claim indegeneous one. Some nair historians claim, Nairs from nepal or Russia. This is case with all caste (hope nobody claims they are from antartica!). The truth, most of cast from kerala are from dravidians only

  205. Darsi May 15, 2009 at 12:51 pm


    Are you a school student?

  206. Manoj May 15, 2009 at 10:18 pm


    you are wrong..

    Nairs are from Greek and Ezhavas from Lanka..

    Try to learn more about all these and then comment. you may be a tamilian.. but I am not..

  207. Rajesh May 15, 2009 at 11:44 pm

    WELL DONE Mr.Tharoor !!!
    I am not expecting a dramatic change BUT,
    Please do something for TRIVANDRUM !!!!
    Hope you will be the next minister for External affairs.
    And please please keep up the aspirations of Indian diaspora like me. We will be behid you wherever in the corner of world.
    Hi Where is SAM, GAURI, ARUN and the others who could’t predict the victory of Tharoor and pulse of Trivandrum. Don’t hide and come out.

  208. Rajesh May 15, 2009 at 11:51 pm

    Hello Mr. Sashi Tharoor,

    And YOU DONE IT.
    The much awaited leadership for TRIVANDRUM.
    The world will remember Trivandrum in you name.

  209. Rajesh May 15, 2009 at 11:56 pm

    The much awaited leadership for TRVANDRUM.
    The world will know about Trivandrum with your name.

  210. Ajay May 15, 2009 at 11:56 pm

    Trivandrum voted! Trivandrum won!

    Q.E.D. and thanks for the discussion, folks!

  211. Nikhil Narayanan May 16, 2009 at 12:01 am

    Great stuff Trivandrum! Good for Trivandrum.
    Thanks Brahma for this unmoderated forum.Had a great fun time following it.

  212. Jugu May 16, 2009 at 12:55 am

    Congrats, Tharoor! Thank you, Trivandrum.

  213. scorpiogenius May 16, 2009 at 2:01 am

    Congrats for Tharoor! 🙂 Im over the moon!

    And special appreciation to Brahma and this blog for the wonderful platform to share out thoughts. Well, as it is always, people have decided what they wanted. So lets rest Palestine, Isreal, Uganda and Timbuctoo for the time being and help Dr. Tharoor for the good cause of Trivandrum.

    All sober?

  214. Payyan May 16, 2009 at 3:17 am

    Congratulations to Mr.Tharoor… 🙂 Hope that he will bring in a refreshing and positive change…

    But all said and done, tht majority is surprising… very very surprising… indeed…

  215. Binz May 16, 2009 at 3:36 am

    Margin of 1,00,045 !!! .Kool ..
    Congrats Tharoor.

  216. Narayan May 16, 2009 at 5:27 am

    Congrats Mr Shashi Tharoor. Margin is really impressive. Hope this will bring a fresh perspective to development efforts in the Capital City

  217. Nikhil Narayanan May 16, 2009 at 5:41 am

    3 tables and some numbers.Here you go!

    Have fun guys!


  218. Rajesh May 16, 2009 at 7:53 am

    Thank you
    Good work

  219. BVN May 16, 2009 at 8:12 am

    This indeed is a historic election!

    Kudos to Tharoor, Trivandrum verdict makes sense and the city once again proves its political acumen.

    Inspite of the Congress wave across India and the state, Tharoor’s margin of 1,00,045 is truly impressive. At the same time, I guess it shows the weight of expectations too. I am a little disappointed by my Candidate M.P.Gangadharan’s votes. (2965) 🙂

    At 16-4, Kerala has voted against Pinarayi Vijayan.

    And Thanks for all the comments and the civil discussion.
    M.P.gangadharan 2965
    P K Krishna Das 83909
    Dr.A.Neelalohithadasan Nadar 85940
    Adv. P Ramachandran Nair 225619
    Shashi Tharoor(Winner) 325664

  220. aruns May 16, 2009 at 10:44 am

    Am surprised that a person who was hardcore SFI activist in college days turns out to be an agressive blog campaigner for this Congress candidate…That itself rightly explains massive victory of this scale….Glad to see that

  221. Manoj May 16, 2009 at 11:34 am

    Congrats !!! atlast a mallu won from tvm

  222. PRG May 16, 2009 at 12:28 pm

    Heartly congrats to Mr.Tharoor for his splendid and historic victory. I have cleared pointed out in this discusstion earlier that Mr. Tharoor chances will diminish only if neelan and bjp get more than 2 lakh votes. i have predicted 1.8 lakhs for neelan +krishna das.. they got together almost same ie 1.7 lakhs+..But lead of 1 lakh votes no body could imagine.. Hope that Mr. Tharoor will get the forign ministry in the central cabinet and he will serve not only tvm people but kerala as a whole.

    My only prayer to some of the participants of this discussion is that pls dont discourage good, educated and efficient people who are joining politcs..we badly require people like Mr. Tharoor to have a change in the Indian political system.Also pls dont tarnish somebody’s image purposefully.

    Again wishing him all the succes..

  223. HARI May 16, 2009 at 12:45 pm

    congrats tharoor.
    aa ninan evide poyi…..haha

  224. Jacob May 16, 2009 at 1:46 pm

    Hahaha hehehe mmmmmm I had predicted a Tharoor win and worked for it too. Ninan and Gauri where are you? Tharoorji you are the best candidate, you won, and Im sure you are an intelligent man, and you will do the Vizhingam port the city twinning project, and above all teach some etiquette to the youth of Trivandrum including me hehehe. Ramachandran Nair and whats his name? Krishnadas, and poor Neelan, enthina veruthe veyilu kondathe veettil irunnal porayirunno? Tharoor we are watching you.

  225. Mallu May 16, 2009 at 11:37 pm

    At last! congrats to the TVM voters. I hope Ninan has gone under drain. Hope you remember my words.if not go back to my posting and see. LDF bite the dust. The count down begins for comunist. My heart felt condolence to Ninan and Gauri. Hope Mr. Ninan know more about number and have no idea about mood of the nation, like the CPM Better luck nex time bye. c ya in 2014

  226. scorpiogenius May 17, 2009 at 3:33 am

    Its true that Trivandrum has looked beyond the translucent walls of politics, caste and regionalism. Hearty Congrats to all the voters. Im proud of my hometown.:)

    Its also as clear as crystal that a ‘vote bank’ as perceived by the Political parties wont work out in Tvm, if you have someone like Tharoor in contention. The LDF analysts are frozen with shock because of this six-digit difference when they thought they had everything in favour of them this time.

    A huge no of traditional LDF votes have gone to Tharoor this time. Some of the popular bloggers here, who are known left sympathisers, were all hands in for Tharoor. I know quite a few friends of mine, who are hardcore Communists, who pitched in for Tharoor. The father of one of the bloggers here, who voted only for ‘Arival Chuttika’ for 55 years, pressed the button for Tharoor this time, so did his whole family.

    So there has been a silent wave from all quarters for Tharoor, which went un-noticed by everyone, a wave so huge that it struck the reds like a Tsunami. Well, alls well that ends well, I wish Tharoor good luck in his job.

    Let he not forget that the hopes are high, and he will have to come back to us in 2014. He will be judged by his work then, and not by his charisma. We will think twice before pressing the same button again then; so the real work begins now Dr. Tharoor. Cheers!

  227. arain hug May 18, 2009 at 10:01 pm

    congrats THAROOR. we all are proud you won. this blog did confuse me a little. but I VOTED FOR YOU.

  228. Narayan May 22, 2009 at 2:34 pm

    I dont think Mr Tharoor will make it to the cabinet. It is really unfortunate that Mr Manmohan Singh is not utilizing Shashi Tharoors expertize this time.

  229. Nitin May 22, 2009 at 11:12 pm

    Thanks for the stats Nikhil N. Dr Tharoor kicked ass in all the assembly segments, good to see!

    Scorpiogenius, well said, I completely agree.But I don’t know which LDF analysts, at least from Trivandrum, were frozen in shock, as Shashi had claimed they all predicted an easy win for him. Anyway, bravo, what a great result, and a great national result as well. Idealism reigned supreme! I’m also pleased to report that a candidate that Dr Shashi Tharoor came to Mumbai to campaign for, 32 yr old Milind Deora, has thrashed his parochial and fascist opponents and won by 112,000+ votes in Mumbai South. Props! 🙂

  230. Rajesh May 23, 2009 at 1:01 pm

    I still think Tharoorji will get a post of junior minister, which is much less than what he deserve. Otherwise it will be a cheating to the people of TVM from congress party.Even though unofficially it was widely spread the news that Thaoor will be a minister during election campaign.
    Dr. Tharoor will slowly used to the Indian politics.
    The initial ministers proved that Soaping is the criteria for mnistership, not merit except few like Antony.Indian democracy is still a newborn baby!!!

  231. Narayan May 29, 2009 at 2:25 pm

    Great. At last Manmohanji and Sonia has recognized Mr Tharoor. I am pretty sure he will be one of the best to occupy the post of Minister of state for external affairs.

  232. arian hug May 29, 2009 at 10:15 pm

    Hi all,

    Spare a thought for NCP candidate MP Gangadharan. what would have he been saying to his wife and children? And to his Party President.And Darsi, where are you and Neelan?

  233. Darsi June 2, 2009 at 5:14 am


    Where r u and Tharoor? Is he stting on your lap?

  234. Rajesh June 4, 2009 at 4:13 am

    Can you not live without seeing Tharoor everyday.
    Keep an enlarged photo of Tharoor in your room.

  235. Nitin June 11, 2009 at 12:58 am

    Bet there are a few people with pictures of him in their rooms. Certainly more than one can say about Vijayan, Ramachandran Nair, Achuthanandan, Karat, Advani, Modi and all those other clowns.

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